Sunday Afternoon Update

Well again, this afternoon, more questions than answers. Just when you think you have it all figured out, the models are once again all over the place. Therefore, I am going to revert to my original forecast of a possibility of some snow on Wednesday night, with some accumulations possible, then the possibility of a more significant and possibly intense storm on Friday. What is confusing is that the European model is now placing more emphasis on the first storm on Wednesday night and Thursday morning and actually produces several inches of snow overnight on Wednesday for all of Northern New Jersey. It then holds the rest of the energy back until the weekend when it brings that through with more mixed precipitation over the weekend. The British model continues with a monster storm on Friday, the Canadian model has a chance of snow on both Wednesday night and a significant storm on Friday, the American model has a chance of snow on Wednesday night and the Friday storm missing us to the east, and the U.S. Navy model has a strong storm on Friday. The models are having a great deal of difficulty putting all of the pieces together. It is safe to say at this point that there is likely to be at least some snow at some point between Wednesday night and Friday. I just found a possible explanation for the model changes from the main National Weather Service forecast office. They say that the morning model runs had additional data ingested into the models from special reconnaissance flights over the Pacific Ocean that the afternoon model runs did not have. Stay tuned.