The National Forecast Office Agrees with Me that the European Model is Probably Correct

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
956 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

VALID 12Z SAT OCT 29 2011 - 12Z TUE NOV 01 2011

THE OVERALL FCST SCENARIO SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE FROM YDAY... WITH
MULTI-DAY MEANS STILL INDICATING PROGRESSIVE FLOW WITH A TENDENCY
TOWARD A BROAD TROF CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL-ERN CONUS. INDIVIDUAL
SOLNS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFS THAT MAY TAKE
SOME TIME TO RESOLVE.

THERE IS A DECENT CLUSTER OF GUIDANCE... INCLUDING THE 00Z
ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN/NOGAPS AND ECMWF MEAN... THAT SUGGESTS RECENT
GFS/GEFS MEAN RUNS MAY BE TOO FAST AND FLAT WITH THE TROF EXPECTED
TO REACH THE ERN STATES BY SAT... AS PER FAST GFS TENDENCIES.
CONTINUITY AND CLUSTERING WITH THE ASSOC EAST COAST/WRN ATLC SFC
LOW HAVE BEEN LESS THAN IDEAL AS THE 00Z/06Z GFS HAVE TRENDED
FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN SOME RUNS FROM YDAY WHILE THE 00Z AND 12Z/24
ECMWF ARE SIMILAR AND SLIGHTLY WWD OF THE 00Z/25 ECMWF. AT LEAST
OVER THE PAST DAY THE ECMWF/UKMET HAVE BEEN THE MOST STABLE AND
SIMILAR SOLNS WHILE CANADIAN RUNS HAVE OSCILLATED WILDLY BETWEEN
SUPPRESSED AND EXTREME WRN TRACKS. IN LIGHT OF YDAY WHEN 12Z
GUIDANCE ON AVG SHIFTED LEFT... PREFER TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY THAT
LEANS MORE TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF AND SLIGHTLY EWD ECMWF MEAN.

CONSENSUS IS NOT QUITE AS ROBUST FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE SERIES
FCST TO BE OVER THE CNTRL CONUS BY SUN BUT NERN PAC/WRN CONUS FLOW
APPEARS SUFFICIENTLY AMPLIFIED TO SUPPORT A SLOWER/MORE AMPLIFIED
CNTRL CONUS TROF AT THAT TIME. IN ADDITION MULTI-DAY MEANS BY THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD STILL SHOW A PERSISTENT AREA OF NEG HGT
ANOMALIES OVER THE NRN ATLC WHICH SUPPORT A BROAD MEAN TROF FROM
HUDSON BAY INTO THE SRN PLAINS. HOWEVER IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
WHETHER FLOW WITHIN THIS TROF WILL SEPARATE TO THE EXTENT SEEN IN
THE PAST COUPLE OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS. THESE ECMWF SOLNS ARE
WITHIN THE FULL ENSEMBLE SPREAD BUT SUFFICIENTLY IN THE MINORITY
TO TONE DOWN THAT ASPECT OF THE MODEL BY DAYS 6-7 MON-TUE.

FINALLY THERE IS A HINT OF CONSENSUS REGARDING THE NEXT SHRTWV
TROF THAT SHOULD ARRIVE AT THE WEST COAST BY MON AND THEN CONTINUE
INLAND. THE 00Z ECMWF/06Z GFS COMPARE BETTER TO THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS THAN THE MORE AMPLIFIED 00Z GFS OR SLOW CANADIAN.

GENERAL PREFERENCE TOWARD SOMEWHAT SLOWER PROGRESSION THAN THE
GFS/GEFS CLUSTER WITH THE LEADING TWO SYSTEMS DURING THE PERIOD
FAVORS AN INITIAL BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN... 70 PCT
TOWARD THE OPERATIONAL RUN DAYS 3-5 FRI-SUN AND THEN 70 PCT TOWARD
THE MEAN BY DAYS 6-7 MON-TUE AS CONFIDENCE IN OPERATIONAL DETAILS
DECLINES.

RAUSCH