Sunday Morning's Weather Discussion

Today should be quite a nice day with a high mainly in the upper 50’s. Tomorrow the clouds will increase in the morning with some rain likely in the afternoon and evening. Tuesday should be a nice day with highs around 60. Then a cold front approaches our area on Wednesday with a chance of rain and a high around 60. The front will move south of our region on Wednesday night, allowing colder air to move in, and then a storm will form along the front on Thursday, bringing precipitation to our area again, starting on Thursday morning. The temperatures will remain steady during the day on Thursday in the middle to upper 40’s, then start to drop in the afternoon and evening into the upper 30’s to lower 40’s, allowing snow to mix in with the rain in the higher elevations. Thursday night temperatures will drop into the middle to upper 30’s, allowing most areas to mix with snow, and higher elevations to probably change to snow. Most areas should change to snow prior to ending late on Thursday night as the temperatures drop to the lower to middle 30’s by morning on Friday. It is possible that the higher elevations could receive a couple of inches of accumulation on Thursday night and it is possible that the lower elevations could even get a dusting of accumulation on Thursday night. The models have been all over the place with various solutions for the period from Thursday through the coming weekend, so this forecast is subject to change, but right now that is my best guess for Thursday and Thursday night, based mainly off the European and Japanese models, which are showing the same solution. The American model has also shown a similar solution from time to time, although right now it shows a different solution for Thursday, which would be all rain for us. This coming weekend also features the chance of a significant Nor’easter forming along the Southeast Coast and moving due north along the Coast according to both the European and Japanese models. If this storm were to develop, it would be moving into the cold air already in place over our region, bringing the possibility of rain or snow. The American model does not currently have this solution and instead brings us the chance of rain or snow on Saturday via an upper level disturbance that drops down from Canada and moves across our region with some light precipitation on Saturday. Therefore, this entire forecast is very much subject to change. I encourage everyone to stay tuned for further updates as things are likely to get interesting around here come next Thursday and possibly through next weekend.