Tuesday Morning's Weather Discussion

First, I am starting to hear from some people that there will not be enough cold air and so on. Well, there will be. In fact, here is the latest snowfall output map from the latest run of the short-range American model that now goes out far enough to catch the rain changing to snow on Thursday evening that I have been advertising for many days now. And here is an article that describes the October 27, 2008 snow event where, "The storm left 14 inches in High Point, Sussex County, while 12 inches were reported in Lebanon, Hunterdon County, 11.5 inches in Mount Olive, Morris County, 4.8 inches in Hackettstown, Warren County, and 1.2 inches in Hillsborough, Somerset County. In New Brunswick, where 1.5 inches fell, it was the first measurable snowfall in October in 36 years and only the fifth in October since record-keeping began in 1894, state climatologist David Robinson said". And here is a You-tube video of the snow that fell on October 17, 2009. So that makes 2 of the last 3 years where we have had significant snow in portions of Northern New Jersey in late October. Myself, I also remember a 6-inch snowfall on October 27, 1982 just to the west of Hackettstown, NJ. The night before the National Weather Service had been predicting rain. It surprised everyone, but it happened. Therefore, yes it can happen. The question is will it. Well, I have been watching for this potential since Saturday the 15th, that is 9 days ago. On every single day since then, one model or other has advertised this possibility, now, as we are getting closer, the best 3 models in existence, in order of accuracy, the European, the British, and the Japanese models, all have a very intense Nor'easter for Northern New Jersey that would bring us significant snow on Saturday into Sunday. They all place the storm in virtually the same location, near the Delmarva Peninsula, then move it north, just off the coast of New Jersey during the day on Saturday, then up into New England, or off the New England coast on Sunday. They would all bring us very significant snow, possibly as much as 12-18 inches in some locations, with near blizzard conditions. The American model also had a similar solution, just not as vigorous on its prior run earlier today. It should be noted though that it was the American model that first brought this storm to my attention, starting way back on the Saturday the 15th, 9 days ago. The medium-range American model previously many times showed solutions much like the current European, British, and Japanese models are currently showing. Does this mean it will happen? No. However, for the reasons I have mentioned previously I think it will. Could I be wrong? Of course I could be. I am human. However, I am going to tell it the way I see it, and share with you what I am seeing. Mother Nature will have the final say, of course. Will, I end up being right? Only time will tell. Of course, I hope I am right, especially after all the time I have invested in this one potential storm. Anyway, for those of you who tell me that it can't possibly be cold enough, I assure you that if, and that is a BIG if, but if this storm occurs as the best three models in existence are currently showing, it will snow on Saturday into Sunday, and it will snow significantly. I do indeed have access to all the data telling me what the temperature profile of the entire atmosphere will be and so on, and I also understand the dynamics that a storm of this magnitude can have, but this is all just potential. This forecast was created based on the premise that those models are right with the placement and intensity of the low-pressure area. If those things change, then the forecast must also change. One possibility is that the center of low pressure comes closer to the coast, or goes inland, which would mean rain for us. Another possibility is that the storm could go further out to sea and miss us completely and it could be sunny all weekend. Of course, those possibilities would mean that ALL 3 of the best models in existence are currently wrong, and that what I have been watching for the past 9 days has also been a figment of the model's imagination for the past 9 days. All of which are possible, but this is what I love about this hobby. Anyway, back to the forecast, on Thursday there will be rain, possibly changing to snow before ending at night, little or no accumulation in lower elevations, a dusting is possible on grassy surfaces in higher elevations, temperatures during the day in the middle to upper 40’s, dropping to the middle to upper 30’s at night. Saturday there will be snow starting around 6am, heavy at times during the day and into the night, possibly mixed with sleet or rain in far eastern sections of Northern New Jersey in the morning, but all snow in all locations in the afternoon and at night, and ending between 10pm and 2am. Total accumulations of 3-6 inches in far southeastern sections of Northern New Jersey, 6-12 inches in all other parts of Northern New Jersey, with 12-18 inches possible in the higher elevations. Morning highs in middle to upper 30’s, dropping to the lower to middle 30’s and holding steady throughout the day and into the night. Of course, it could also be sunny and 50 degrees. Only time will tell what Mother Nature has in store for us, but I am giving it my best shot of foretelling the future. We shall see what happens.