Friday Evening Update on Tuesday Night into Wednesday Potential Storm

The Tuesday night into Wednesday morning storm is looking very interesting on the models this evening. As we are getting closer in time to the eventual storm, it is starting to look more and more like what I started talking about more than a week ago. The storm system will develop over the Tennessee River Valley on Tuesday and track northeast to somewhere near our area. The question remains, to exactly where will it track? The European model of yesterday afternoon showed it taking a track that looked very much like the track that I envisioned more than a week ago, and that track would have potentially been quite snowy. Then the European model changed on the last two runs to a track that would be much more rainy than snowy, and the American model had as well, until the latest run that just came out this evening. Now, not only did the American model change back to a snowier solution, just as I had envisioned more than a week ago, but the United States Navy model and the extended version of the short-range American model has as well. The British model also appears to take a snowier track, while the Japanese model has a rainy track. So, to sum this up, currently all the American models, the short-range extended model, the medium range American model, and the United States Navy model all produce a significant snowstorm for our area, and probably the British model as well, while the European and the Japanese models have rain for us. Of important note is the fact that all of the models that have the snowstorm are based on the latest data from this afternoon because all of these models are run every 6 hours, while the European and Japanese models are based off this morning’s data as they are only run every 12 hours. I will be jumping all over this storm if the European model changes it’s track for this storm to something similar to the American and British models, and I think it just might, which is a risky thought on my part, because the European model has the best verification in this time range of all the models. However, the latest model data is suggesting to me that the European model may just be wrong with its last two runs. All the American models are run in slightly different ways, yet their tracks are very, very similar. This tells me that they more than likely have the right track, and that track would likely bring our area some significant snow on Tuesday night into Wednesday. If however the European and Japanese models, which were run with data from this morning, were right, we would get mostly rain, possibly changing to snow before ending on Wednesday afternoon. The next run of the European model comes out early in the morning and I will be anxiously awaiting its arrival to see if it reverts to its solution from yesterday afternoon that looked very much like this evening’s runs of all the American models. Oh yes, and for the early the following week potential on Monday the 28th and Tuesday the 29th, there is still the potential for a VERY significant storm that could form somewhere near us and stall out, bringing very heavy rain or snow for both days and possibly even into Wednesday the 30th. I am very closely watching this potential for a storm that could possibly be remembered for quite some time if it all the potential comes together as it could.