Friday Morning's Weather Discussion - Bizarre Storm Headed our Way Next Week - It is Important that You Check this Blog this Afternoon

Well, this morning’s run of the European model has produced a rather interesting solution for next week’s storm that I have been calling the bizarre storm for more than a week now. First, we will have some nice weather for today, tomorrow, and most of the day on Sunday, prior to the chance of some showers on Sunday night and Monday morning as a cold front passes through our area. Then the nicknamed bizarre storm heads our way from the Deep South. Many questions still need to be resolved with this storm but the latest run of the European model raises some concerns about possible interaction with the colder air just to our north and west as the storm heads our way. My 10-day forecast in the post below this one is a direct depiction of what the European model shows. The most likely solution now though would be an all rain event, with 2-3 inches of rain falling on Tuesday and Wednesday, which would once again bring flooding to our area, especially after the heavy rains of this week. However, the European model does show the chance of the storm pulling in cold air before it comes to an end on Wednesday afternoon and evening with the possibility of accumulating snow amounting to 3-6 inches throughout Northern New Jersey. As I said though, it will most likely be rain. The model has shown something similar with the last two storms and neither one of those snow chances materialized, although I will say that neither one of those chances that it showed was anything near this significant, so we will just have to wait and see. Also, if by any chance this storm moved just a little bit further east than the model is projecting, or strengthens faster than the model is showing, it could easily bring in the colder air just in time for the heaviest of the precipitation on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. It would take only a very slight eastward shift of this storm, or a slightly quicker intensification of this storm to produce an incredible snowstorm here on Tuesday night and Wednesday. I will say again though that this is NOT the most likely solution. This storm will more likely be all rain, ending on Wednesday morning with some flooding in our area as 2-3 inches of rain fall on already saturated grounds after the 2-3 inches of rain we had this week. It is important though that everyone checks this blog again around 2pm this afternoon, as I will certainly post an update on this storm. Small changes in the track and intensity of this storm will make the difference between a flooding rain and an incredible snowstorm, although the most likely solution is flooding rain. Unfortunately, the American model is so far of absolutely no use in helping to forecast this storm as it has been showing it being sunny and dry throughout the entire time that every other major model shows an intense rain event. Amazing really. After that storm passes by, it will get very cold for the end of the week and there is a chance of light snow on Friday night as another weak storm system heads our way. Next weekend may end up being very cold with lows in the teens according to the European model. Stay tuned.