More on Today's Storm Potential

The cold front moved through our area late last night and the cold air is now in place over our area. A storm is now forming over the Southeastern United States and will track along the front today, throwing moisture back into our area. Any precipitation that falls today will be falling from the clouds as snow. The question is whether or not the precipitation will be able to make it to the ground as snow. The temperatures are warm now, in the upper 30's to lower 40's, but will drop into the middle to upper 30's after the precipitation starts, then into the lower to middle 30's by evening. The chances of the precipitation making it to the ground as snow increase as you go higher in elevation as the snow has less time traveling through the warm air, hence less chance of melting and becoming rain. The other thing that helps the snow make it to the ground without melting is intensity of the precipitation. If the precipitation is heavy enough it helps the colder air to come down from cloud level to ground level, helping to keep the precipitation from melting and changing to rain. My gut instinct is that the higher elevations will receive mainly snow, accumulating 1 or 2 inches and the lower elevations will start as rain or wet snow and change to snow this afternoon with accumulations of a dusting to an inch. Also, by evening areas in Northwest New Jersey and the higher elevations in Northeast New Jersey will be approaching freezing, so there may be some problems with snow accumulating on the roads and ice forming on the roads in some locations, so be careful driving this afternoon, especially in higher elevations.