Sunday Morning's Weather Discussion

Today should be a nice day, and then tomorrow through Wednesday there will be a chance of shower out ahead of a cold front that will be moving our way. Highs through the period will generally be in the middle 50’s. The cold front will move through our area on Wednesday afternoon or evening, bringing colder air into our region. Then on Thursday I introduced the slight chance of snow as the European model has introduced the chance of a storm developing along the front either in the Gulf of Mexico or in the Southeast United States, then moving northeast along the front and off the Middle Atlantic Coast. Depending on whether this storm does indeed develop, and the exact track of that the storm, if it does indeed develop, there would be a chance of snow on Thursday as the cold air would be in place behind the cold front that moved through on Wednesday night. Again, at this point, the ONLY model showing this as even being a possibility is the European model, but why I give it even a slight chance is that those of you who follow my blog regularly already know that the European model is also the most accurate model by far. Just because it is the most accurate, does not mean it is correct however. The European model can certainly be wrong just like any other model, but I feel that I must introduce it since the European model is showing this as a possibility. We will just have to wait for the next model run to see if this is a trend and the other models start showing it as well, or if the model is wrong. I have certainly seen this go both ways. I would not be surprised if the storm disappears on the next run; on the other hand, I would not be surprised if the other models start to show something on Thursday. I will definitely do an afternoon update today to keep you posted on this possibility. The high temperature that I have in my forecast for Thursday is based upon the storm not affecting our area. If the storm does develop and does affect our area, the high temperature would likely be in the lower to middle 30’s with snow, instead of sunny and in the middle 40’s. Friday will then be a nice day, but quite cold with lows below freezing in most areas and highs only in the middle 40’s. Next weekend should be nice with highs generally in the lower to middle 50’s, then next Monday and Tuesday there will be a chance of a shower but it will be quite warm out ahead of the next cold front that will approach our area next Tuesday night with highs in the lower 60’s both days. Then things may get interesting as a strong storm may very well form somewhere over the Southeast United States, possibly affecting our area with either rain or snow sometime between next Wednesday and Saturday. Stay tuned for updates on the possibility of a surprise snow event on Thursday of this week and the possibility of a strong Nor’easter around Thanksgiving that could bring us either heavy rain or heavy snow.