Saturday Afternoon Update on Potential Thursday Storm

My best guess right now for Thursday morning is that we may be looking at a significant storm, but most likely much of it being rain, although that is not a certainty. I did quite a bit of research the past few hours and have found significant similarities between the Japanese and Canadian models, as well as 4 out of 12 of the individual members of the American model, which are all run under different parameters. The American and British models both produce a very strong storm that would be all rain for us, while the European model is on the other end of the spectrum, bringing the cold air in, in such force that it pushes the developing storm out to sea, southeast of our area. The best compromise would be to go with the Japanese and Canadian models (which have also been the most consistent with this storm potential so far), which produce a solution right in the middle with a strong storm bringing both rain and possibly snow to our area. It is too early to tell for sure what will happen, especially with the models being all over the place. They are having difficulty in determining how much interaction there will be between two storm systems, one moving south from Canada, and one moving east across the Southern United States. The European model has the least interaction between the two, producing a weak storm remaining south of our area and keeping the cold air in place with a chance of flurries. The American and British models have the most interaction between the two, producing a very strong storm that moves north of our area with warm air and rain. The Japanese and Canadian models are an exact compromise with medium interaction between the two storm systems, causing a strong storm that remains southeast of our area with the center of low pressure developing in the Western Carolinas on Wednesday and moving to a point very near the coast of the Delmarva Peninsula (where Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia meet). They then move this intensifying storm northeast to near Cape Cod on Thursday afternoon or evening. This track would keep the cold air in place, but it is difficult to tell if it would be cold enough for the precipitation to fall as snow. Right now, it would appear to me that this is the most likely track and this track would be very close to producing a very significant snowstorm here on Thursday morning. We will just have to wait and see how the storm develops and if it does develop, how much cold air remains in place. I will keep you updated.