Monday, October 22, 2012

Monday Morning's Weather Discussion - Did You Ever See the Movie, The Day After Tomorrow?



Well, what can I say?  Did you ever see the movie The Day After Tomorrow?  That is what the latest run of the European model reminds me of, as it manages to produce one of the craziest scenarios I have ever seen.  It manages to produce a strong Hurricane that makes direct landfall on the coast of New Jersey, bringing heavy rains and strong winds to our area and all the way down to Washington D.C. and heavy snow west into the Allegheny Mountains of Pennsylvania, and down the spine of the Appalachian Mountains in West Virginia and Virginia, and changes the heavy rain to heavy snow all the way into Washington D.C. as it pulls all of the cold air from the Arctic right down on top of them. Taken verbatim, it would be hurricane conditions in Washington D.C. for the first half of the storm, followed by Blizzard conditions for the second half of the storm.  O.K, now what are the chances of that right, so I guess it won’t happen?   I don’t know what to say anymore.  I would normally have just laughed at this solution, but the models have been all over something big happening in this time range for almost a week now, so I can’t just throw it out.  The latest run of the American model does not go with the hurricane solution but sends the hurricane out to sea and still produces a strong Nor'easter that would bring some heavy rains to our area on Sunday and Monday, changing to some snow on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Normally I would side with the European model as it is usually a much better model, but recently it has been having some difficulties and the American model has actually done better in a couple of instances recently, although the verification statistics of the European model still remain higher, so who knows?  

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