Well, the European model is continuing to show one of the
most amazing solutions I have ever seen.
I have to put a disclaimer that it is currently the only operational
model showing such a solution. However,
there is one member out of 12 members of the American model that has
consistently shown a similar solution to what the European model is showing,
and the models have been indicating the possibility of something big happening
in this time range for a week now. In
addition, the European model has a much higher accuracy rating at this range,
so the fact that it is on its own is somewhat scary. However, it is possible that the European
model is wrong. Anyway, the European
model continues to show one of the strongest storms I have ever seen modeled
and it now shows the storm making landfall on Eastern Long Island early next
Tuesday morning, then tracking northwest through southwest Connecticut, and southeast
New York. This would bring heavy rain
into our area starting Sunday and continuing through Monday with hurricane
force winds as well. It shows our area
receiving between 5 and 6 inches of rain.
It then draws the cold air into the storm behind it and mixes with or
changes the rain to snow on Tuesday, with some accumulations possible in the
higher terrain. It then continues the
chance of rain or snow showers in our area on Wednesday and Thursday. Right now, it is the only model showing
anything even remotely similar to this, however it is also the model that has
the highest accuracy rating in this range, and we are quickly nearing the range
in which no model really even comes close, so stay tuned for an update this
afternoon before 3:00 when the next run of the European model comes out.
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