Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Tuesday Morning's Weather Discussion - The European Model Still Brings Us the "Day After Tomorrow" Storm



Well, the European model is continuing to show one of the most amazing solutions I have ever seen.  I have to put a disclaimer that it is currently the only operational model showing such a solution.  However, there is one member out of 12 members of the American model that has consistently shown a similar solution to what the European model is showing, and the models have been indicating the possibility of something big happening in this time range for a week now.  In addition, the European model has a much higher accuracy rating at this range, so the fact that it is on its own is somewhat scary.  However, it is possible that the European model is wrong.  Anyway, the European model continues to show one of the strongest storms I have ever seen modeled and it now shows the storm making landfall on Eastern Long Island early next Tuesday morning, then tracking northwest through southwest Connecticut, and southeast New York.  This would bring heavy rain into our area starting Sunday and continuing through Monday with hurricane force winds as well.  It shows our area receiving between 5 and 6 inches of rain.  It then draws the cold air into the storm behind it and mixes with or changes the rain to snow on Tuesday, with some accumulations possible in the higher terrain.  It then continues the chance of rain or snow showers in our area on Wednesday and Thursday.  Right now, it is the only model showing anything even remotely similar to this, however it is also the model that has the highest accuracy rating in this range, and we are quickly nearing the range in which no model really even comes close, so stay tuned for an update this afternoon before 3:00 when the next run of the European model comes out. 

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