Difficulty of the Forecast for Next Week

Below is this morning's discussion from the National forecast 

office outside of Washington, D.C.  They talk about how 

difficult of a forecast this is. I have had many people ask me 

questions this morning about what the chances are that this is 

snow. At this very moment in time, which is definitely subject 

to change at any time, I am leaning slightly toward rain and I

would go with 55/45 rain vs. snow, but like I said, 

that could change at any time.  Stay tuned. 

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
317 AM EST MON NOV 12 2012

VALID 12Z FRI NOV 16 2012 - 12Z MON NOV 19 2012

A VERY COMPLICATED REGIME TO PREDICT LIES AHEAD FOR THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD.  DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREE ON THE
GENERAL FLOW PATTERN...WITH A SPLIT SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHING THE
WEST COAST BETWEEN DAYS 3-4/THU-FRI...FOLLOWED POSSIBLY BY ANOTHER
SPLIT TROUGH AROUND DAY 7/MON.  MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ORIGINATING NEAR THE ARCTIC CIRCLE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND ACCORDING
TO SOME GUIDANCE...SPLIT INTO TWO SEGMENTS...WITH THE NORTHERN
SEGMENT ACCELERATING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT
EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST AROUND DAY 5/SAT. 
MODEL AGREEMENT AND PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY
AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT ON THESE IMPORTANT DETAILS ARE POOR. 
THUS...THE PREFERENCE IS TO PRESERVE FORECAST CONTINUITY AS MUCH
AS POSSIBLE WHILE INCORPORATING SOME BUT NOT ALL OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT OR BETTER CLUSTERING OF SOLUTIONS
DEVELOPS.  THIS APPROACH RESULTS IN USING AN EQUAL BLEND OF THE
00Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF DAY 3...BEFORE MOVING TOWARD AN EQUAL
BLEND OF THE 12Z NAEFSBCMEAN/00Z GEFS MEAN BY DAYS 6/7 FOR THE
PRELIMINARY PRESSURES/FRONTS.  CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN
AVERAGE DAYS 3/4...AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE DAY 5 AND BEYOND.

JAMES