Friday Morning's Weather Discussion

Today we will have continued warm temperatures, but increasing cloudiness, this afternoon as a cold front approaches our area, followed by a slight chance of a shower this evening and a slight chance of a snow shower late at night.  Tomorrow we will have a slight chance of a Lake Effect snow shower off the Great Lakes and it will be much colder, with a high only around 40.  The cold weather will continue on Sunday with a high again around 40.  Monday should be a bit warmer with a high in the middle 40’s. Then we have to turn our eyes toward a storm that will be developing in the southeastern United States. The American model had been indicating that the storm might head north of us, bringing warm air and rain into our area, while the European model had a very different solution, keeping the storm so far south and east of us that it would be cold and dry here.  This morning the American model finally figured out that the storm will not go north of us and bring us rain, and in fact now shows a mixture of rain and snow for us on Tuesday into Wednesday morning.  But the European model has now gone one step further and takes this storm even further south and east of us, giving us just a chance of a snow shower on Tuesday and Wednesday.  So, what will happen?  I am guessing that the American model is still too far north and too warm with the storm, so I do not expect any rain with this storm.  On the hand, I am guessing that the European model is too far south and east with the storm, so I do not think it will completely miss us.  My best guess is that we will see at least some snow on Tuesday and Wednesday, but I am not sure.  It is also possible that the European model is correct and the storm will completely miss us to the south and east, keeping us dry.  Therefore, I am leaving a chance of snow in my forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday and we will just have to wait and see how things develop.  One thing is certain though.  After this storm moves past us, we will experience the coldest air yet this season next weekend, with low temperatures reaching the teens and highs only in the 30’s.  Please check back for continuous updates on this potential storm.  I am pasting below the discussion this morning from the National Weather Service headquarters that highlights the difficulties in the forecast this morning.  Keep in mind when you are reading this discussion, that these are the top forecasters in the country talking.  In their discussion, they talk about the ECMWF and the GFS.  The ECMWF is the European model, and the GFS is the American model that I talk about in my discussions.  This stands for, European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting.   Again, on a side note, the bowling team at Indian Hills High School in Oakland, NJ is doing a fundraiser for Superstorm Sandy relief.  I would encourage everyone who reads this blog to consider donating $20 to Superstorm Sandy relief, and with your donation, you will receive a “The Edge Weather” T-shirt.   Again, proceeds will be going to Superstorm Sandy relief, and will benefit people who were affected by this terrible storm.  If you attend Indian Hills High School or know someone who does, please see an Indian Hills bowler, Mr. Michels, someone from the Technology Department, or Mr. Edgerton with your donation of $20 cash, or check made payable to “Indian Hills High School”.  Thank you.   

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

305 AM EST FRI NOV 23 2012

VALID 12Z TUE NOV 27 2012 - 12Z FRI NOV 30 2012

GENERAL FLOW PATTERN

====================

A REPETITION OF THE PATTERN SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS IS

EXPECTED, WITH AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN

PACIFIC, WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING FORMING ACROSS THE WEST AND

PLAINS, AND RENEWED TROUGHING ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,

THOUGH THE RIDGE/TROUGH COUPLET OVER THE LOWER 48 IS EXPECTED TO

BE COMPOSED OF BROAD FEATURES OF RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE, WHICH

LEADS TO QUICK SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT THROUGH THE COUNTRY.

MODEL PREFERENCE

================

MODEL ISSUES ARE SIGNIFICANT THIS PERIOD.  THE 00Z ECMWF BECOMES

VERY FAST WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY, AND

EVEN THOUGH ITS PATTERN ALOFT RESEMBLES THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION

LATE NEXT WEEK, ITS PRESSURE PATTERN HAS BEEN SO CONTAMINATED BY

THIS QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE EAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC,

ITS SOLUTION COULD NOT BE USED.  THE 00Z GFS BROKE DOWN THE

WESTERN RIDGE WEDNESDAY MORNING BY USING A FORMERLY CLOSED LOW TO

DO SO, AND DOES NOT CONVERGE WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE

UNTIL DECEMBER 1ST, SO ITS SOLUTION WAS NOT USED EITHER.  THE 00Z

CANADIAN SHARPENS THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE

PLAINS EARLY ON, AND SENDS A DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL

APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WHICH SHOWS LITTLE

RESPECT TO THE COOL AIR IN ADVANCE OF THE FEATURE (NO OBVIOUS COLD

AIR DAMMING).  THE CANADIAN SOLUTION IS ON THE SLOW SIDE OF THE

12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE TO BOOT, AND CONSIDERING THE

RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW, ITS SOLUTION SHOULD BE QUICKER AND

POSSIBLY WEAKER HERE, SO ITS SOLUTION WAS NOT BE USED EITHER.

PER THE ABOVE, THE PRESSURES USED A 00Z UKMET TEMPLATE THROUGH

TUESDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z GEFS/12Z

ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS.  THE 00Z UKMET SOLUTION WAS NOT

PERFECT EITHER, SHOWING QUICKER PROGRESSION THAN ANTICIPATED BY

THE ENSEMBLE LOW CLUSTERING ACROSS THE EAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC,

SO SHIFTED ITS LOW PRESSURE CENTER TOWARDS 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE

CLUSTERING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  CONSIDERING THE DETERMINISTIC

MODEL SPREAD THIS PERIOD, THE RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW ACROSS

THE LOWER 48 UNITED STATES, AND THE LACK OF AN OVERALL GOOD

DETERMINISTIC MODEL CHOICE, CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE IN THIS

PREFERENCE.

ROTH