Sunday Evening's Weather Discussion - So What is Happening With This Storm?

Well, I tracked this coming storm for Tuesday for the past 2 weeks.  The storm looked like as if it might be a significant storm up until this morning.  It now looks like it will indeed be quite insignificant.  The storm might cause a few slick spots on the roads, but in most areas, it may very well not even accumulate on the roads.  As of this particular moment in time, it looks as if we will only get flurries to an inch of accumulation, and it is still possible this storm will miss us to the south completely.  So, what happened?  First, it is not over yet, so you never know for sure what the models will show tomorrow, but right now, it looks like my suspicions that the cold air would win the battle this time were definitely right.  That is why I saw this as a snow threat all along, except for one day of the last two weeks, even while the National Weather Service was calling for rain with this storm until this morning.  However, the cold air won the battle even more than I thought it would, and it is squashing this system to the south of us, which will keep the majority of the moisture to our south for South Jersey, where they will get the 2-4 inches of snow that I thought we would get.  Second, there were two separate pieces of energy that were supposed to come together to produce a more intense storm, and that is apparently not going to happen.  That is why the models were showing 4-6 inches yesterday, with some areas getting 8 inches, and today the maximum area of snow will be in South Jersey, with them getting 2-4 inches.  Therefore, I was correct with the cold air winning and this being a snow threat, I give myself that, but what I did not see was that the cold air would win to such a degree that the storm would be pushed south of us.  That is mainly because the second piece of energy will likely not come together with the first piece until it is too far out to sea.  Anyway, the result will likely be us getting only flurries, or possibly an inch of accumulation, and it is still possible that the storm will miss us completely to the south.  After this storm, things should be relatively nice until Friday night when we might see some snow showers or flurries as some warm air starts to override the cold air in place over us.  Then on Saturday, there will be just a chance of a shower.  Sunday there will then be a chance of rain, and it will be mild this coming weekend with highs reaching the 50’s.  Check back for updates, just in case.  You never know.  Again, on a side note, the bowling team at Indian Hills High School in Oakland, NJ is doing a fundraiser for Superstorm Sandy relief.  I would encourage everyone who reads this blog to consider donating $20 to Superstorm Sandy relief, and with your donation, you will receive a “The Edge Weather” T-shirt.   Again, proceeds will be going to Superstorm Sandy relief, and will benefit people who were affected by this terrible storm.  If you attend Indian Hills High School or know someone who does, please see an Indian Hills bowler, Mr. Michels, someone from the Technology Department, or Mr. Edgerton with your donation of $20 cash, or check made payable to “Indian Hills High School”.  Thank you.