Sunday's Weather Discussion

I have been watching these models all day trying to figure out what is going to happen.  My thoughts have remained almost the same as they have all along with this storm.  It is going to be one heck of a Nor’easter with sustained winds in our area of 20-30mph most likely, with gusts to 50mph possible.  Coastal sections will likely see sustained winds of 30-40mph with gusts to 70mph possible.  There will be coastal flooding again for certain, of course nowhere near as bad as with Sandy, but many of the sand barriers are no longer there, so this is not good.  I have two big concerns for our area, one is that the winds will be strong, which could certainly knock down the trees that are currently sitting on power lines, and secondly, the possibility of ice or snow accumulating on the power lines is very concerning.  It now appears that heavy snow is a real possibility all the way down to Washington D.C. and Richmond Virginia where as much as a foot of snow could fall, which is almost unheard of for early November.  The big question is whether we will get ice and snow, and how much.  It is really getting very difficult to tell how much ice or snow we will see here in Northern New Jersey.  It now appears that the heaviest precipitation amounts will remain south of us, so this would reduce snowfall amounts.  It also appears that some warm air may move in between cloud level and ground level.  In other words, it is possible that it could be snowing from the clouds, then change to rain or sleet, or even to freezing rain if it is below freezing at ground level, which it could be in some locations.  My best guess would be 1-3 inches of snow, sleet and freezing rain accumulation, possibly mixed with rain in all areas northwest of Routes 287 and 78, and a dusting to an inch south and east of Routes. 287 and 78.  This whole forecast can quite easily change dramatically in any direction, so stay tuned!