Thanksgiving Weather Discussion - All Eyes on a Possible Storm on Tuesday

It will be beautiful until tomorrow afternoon with highs in the lower to middle 50’s, then a cold front will approach, bringing increasing cloudiness tomorrow afternoon and just a slight chance of a shower tomorrow evening, and a rain or snow shower late at night.  On Saturday, it will be much colder and we will have a slight chance of a Lake Effect snow shower.  Monday and Tuesday should be quite nice, but cool.  Then, well, I am going to go out on a limb here and go with the ensemble means of both the American and European models.  The operational runs of the American and European models are completely opposite each other, with the American model stronger and warmer with rain, and the European model weaker and colder with the snow staying south of our area.  In a case like this, I always look at the ensemble means of the models.  The ensembles of the models are various runs of each model under slightly different parameters, designed to show various possibilities with slight changes.  This helps in cases where only slight changes in atmospheric conditions can lead to very different results.  The averaging out of these ensemble members is called the ensemble mean.  The Ensemble mean of the American and European models cuts the difference between the two operational models in half and shows nearly identical solutions, which would mean a snowy Tuesday into Wednesday morning here, if this were to verify.  I will use this ensemble mean for my forecast, as typically when models show two completely different solutions, something in between is often the result.  Keep in mind though that this is just my best guess at this point, and sometimes this does not work out and one of the models ends up being completely right.  Behind this storm, the coldest air so far this season will invade our area, keeping the highs in the 30’s and the lows will likely reach the teens in many locations in our area. Keep checking back in for continuous updates, as this forecast can easily change in any direction.  Again, on a side note, the bowling team at Indian Hills High School in Oakland, NJ is doing a fundraiser for Superstorm Sandy relief.  I would encourage everyone who reads this blog to consider donating $20 to Superstorm Sandy relief, and with your donation, you will receive a “The Edge Weather” T-shirt.   Again, proceeds will be going to Superstorm Sandy relief, and will benefit people who were affected by this terrible storm.  If you attend Indian Hills High School or know someone who does, please see an Indian Hills bowler, Mr. Michels, someone from the Technology Department, or Mr. Edgerton with your donation of $20 cash, or check made payable to “Indian Hills High School”.  Thank you.