Thursday Morning's Weather Discussion - Potential Nor'easter Next Wednesday

I still want to do some more posting about Sandy, but I am still recovering here myself.  We got electrical service back so I am now going to take my generators and gasoline to my mother near Asbury Park as she has to stay there to keep the sump pump working so the water does not come into her home.  She is unable to get gasoline as all the gas stations are closed and if she drives far enough away where one is open the lines are very long.  I am also going to be picking up my sister from Edison where they still do not have power and my sister does not have a generator.  The remnants of Sandy will stick with us through tomorrow with clouds and a slight chance of a shower, which could be mixed with snow in the higher elevations.  Finally, this weekend we should see some sun, but it will be cold, so I hope power is restored for most people by then.  Lows this weekend will be in the 20’s and highs in the middle to upper 40’s.  The storm potential for next week has moved back to Wednesday, as a strong Nor’easter is likely to form along the Eastern Seaboard.  The big question though is how close the storm will come to Northern New Jersey.  There is a possibility that the storm will remain just far enough out to sea to miss us entirely.  There is also a possibility that it will not miss us, and if it does not, it could bring us a significant rain or snowstorm depending on how things come together.  There is a real possibility at this point that if the storm hits us, it will be in the form of snow, but it is simply too early to tell whether it will hit us, and if it does, what form it will take.  The only thing I can tell you for sure at the moment is that the first chance of significant snowstorm this season will be next Wednesday.  Right now the European model keeps the storm just far enough away from us that it misses us nearly entirely, while the American model brings it close enough to us that it would bring at least some precipitation to our area.  Both models interestingly show this storm starting to develop near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, then going out to sea, prior to turning back inland over New England, much as Sandy did.  Apparently, there is a significant amount of blocking present in the North Atlantic.  This blocking is causing these storms to push inland in the Northeastern United States, instead of continuing northeast as they usually do.  This will be something to watch as the season progresses, but this could very well be a sign of things to come as the season rolls on.  Both the American and European models do intensify this storm quite a bit and bring a significant snowstorm to New England, but both storms just miss us with the majority of the precipitation.  Stay tuned.