Tuesday Morning's Weather Discussion - Major Nor'easter to Develop This Weekend, But Where is it Going?

The showers will end this morning, and then all eyes turn to a Nor’easter that will be developing near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina this weekend.  This storm will start to move north to our area on Sunday. Then all the questions start.  Will the storm move far enough north that precipitation starts here on Sunday, or will it stay just far enough south that the precipitation does not make it here before the storm makes a right hand turn and goes out  into the ocean, prior to turning around and coming back on Wednesday morning? On the other hand, does it stay over us the entire time from Sunday through Wednesday?  Then, does the storm stall out over us until Thursday or Friday, or possibly merge with another storm on Thursday and Friday over us, or does it just move away.  Then does another storm develop for the Monday after Thanksgiving?  Lots of questions, but not many answers.  The only thing that I know for sure right now is that a strong Nor’easter is going to form near Cape Hatteras on Saturday and move north on Sunday.  I honestly have no idea after that whether it will make it here on Sunday or not.  I give that a 50/50 chance.  It may also move out to sea, and then come back here on Wednesday.  The American model is the one that has the storm staying over us for Sunday and Monday and then moving out of the area.  The European model gets the storm close, then makes a right hand turn and takes it out into the ocean, before turning it into a powerful Nor’easter on Wednesday and making a left hand turn and coming back to us.  At this point, I would have to lean towards the European solution, but I really have no idea which one is correct.  The European model does produce a very powerful and large Nor’easter that could drastically affect travel plans for many people in the Northeastern United States on the busiest travel day of the year (the day before Thanksgiving), and for Thanksgiving itself.  As far as rain vs. snow goes, if the American model is right and the storm gets here on Sunday and Monday, I will go with 55/45 percent chances for rain vs. snow, and if the European model is correct and the storm does not reach us until Wednesday, I will go with 55/45 percent chances for snow vs. rain.  Don’t pay much attention to the temperatures from Sunday through next Thursday as they are all subject to what this storm does.  Lots of questions and not many answers.  Check back in for updates this afternoon.