Yes, I am holding with my 2-5 inch forecast for snow and ice accumulation. The European and the short-range American model have looked very similar all day today on their respective runs. They do have the mix line established right over us for the end of the storm, but the majority of the precipitation should fall as snow in northern sections, with more mixing as you head south.
Click here to view the short-range American model snowfall output map from the latest model run. It looks very similar to my forecast, so I am going to stick with it. It basically shows 1-6 inches of snow as you head north of Route 78 and toward Northern Sussex County. My forecast was for 2-5 inches, which is feeling pretty good right now. The European and short-range American models are projecting that all layers of the atmosphere between the ground and the clouds will be below freezing throughout the majority of the storm, but a warm layer of air will likely develop just above the clouds that may allow the precipitation to change to sleet tomorrow morning before the storm ends, which will be the reason for the lower accumulations as you head south. When you get up into far Northern Sussex County the precipitation is likely to remain all snow. And the latest run of the medium range American model now shows my Nor'easter that I have been talking about for a week already for next Tuesday. This run produced a significant snowstorm for us next Tuesday with extremely cold temperatures as well. It also produced a significant Nor'easter for next Friday as well, but please keep in mind that both of these possibilities are still a long way out and anything is possible. There is no guarantee that even if these storms do indeed develop that they will affect our area, so check back for updates. Also, the model is showing very cold temperatures through the end of the moth, with the possibilities of highs only in the teens for some days next week, even while it is possibly snowing, and lows in the single digits, to possibly even below zero. And again below is the post I made about this storm potential way back on January 3rd.
Well, we are going to see a chance of a little light snow that could
leave a dusting in many locations early on Sunday morning, then we will
see warmth next week that will melt all the snow as we approach or
exceed 50 degrees by the end of the week. Then..... I am having one of
those feelings that I have had before. I could be totally wrong, but
what the heck, sometimes I nail these things from two weeks out, so here
we go. Next weekend the warmth will come to an end rather abruptly
with the passage of a cold front. Then early the following week we
could very well be looking at a rather large Nor'easter, in the form of
snow. It is nearly two weeks away, so who knows, but, I am getting one
of those feelings, so what the heck. You know, Weather on the Edge,
right? Why not. Let me put a date range on this. Some time between
Monday January 14th and Thursday January 17th. Let's see how this
goes. Should be interesting.
Posted by
The Edge
at
8:39 PM
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