Thursday, February 7, 2013
Thursday, February 7, 2013
Thursday Morning's Weather Discussion
Our storm is on track to bring our
area a significant snowstorm tomorrow, and there is still the possibility of
blizzard conditions.
Right now, my best guess would be 8-15 inches throughout Northern New Jersey, with the lower amounts in western sections and the higher amounts in eastern sections.
A slight westward shift of only 30 miles in the track of this storm would increase snowfall amounts dramatically. This is shown once again this morning by the European control model, which continues to show us getting even more snow than the operational run shows (the operational run of the European model shows us getting 10-15 inches, while the control run of the model shows us getting 18-24 inches), and then we have the American model showing 6-10 inches in our area.
Therefore, I will go down the middle and go with 8-15 inches. The snow should start lightly around 4am and become steady by 10am, then heavy at times by 1pm and continue until 7am on Saturday morning. Check back for updates!!
The Edge
Right now, my best guess would be 8-15 inches throughout Northern New Jersey, with the lower amounts in western sections and the higher amounts in eastern sections.
A slight westward shift of only 30 miles in the track of this storm would increase snowfall amounts dramatically. This is shown once again this morning by the European control model, which continues to show us getting even more snow than the operational run shows (the operational run of the European model shows us getting 10-15 inches, while the control run of the model shows us getting 18-24 inches), and then we have the American model showing 6-10 inches in our area.
Therefore, I will go down the middle and go with 8-15 inches. The snow should start lightly around 4am and become steady by 10am, then heavy at times by 1pm and continue until 7am on Saturday morning. Check back for updates!!
The Edge
Wednesday, February 6, 2013
Wednesday, February 6, 2013
Historic Blizzard Still Possible on Friday
There is still a real possibility of a historic blizzard
here on Friday. It looks as if the snow will start around 4am lightly,
and become steady and a bit heavier by 7am. By 10am a steady fairly heavy
snow should be falling, and by 12 noon it should be snowing hard. The
snow should be heaviest from the late afternoon through the early morning hours
on Saturday. The snow should end between 5am and 7am on Saturday
morning. Right now a good guess would be 12-18 inches throughout our area,
almost exactly as I stated earlier today. No big changes. The only
thing I can say is that somewhere between Central New Jersey and Boston,
Massachusetts is likely to get 3 feet or more of snow. That location has
definitely trended closer to us on the models this evening, as the American
model now agrees with the European model on the forecast listed above and with
the forecast I issued this morning. The American model actually shows the
possibility of up to 3 feet of snow in areas as close as central Long Island
and Southwest Connecticut, although it is possible that New York City and Long
Island could also get some rain during the day, which could possibly hold them
back on the accumulations to more like we get here. Keep in mind it is
still possible that this storm could move slightly in either direction, giving
us more snow, or less. Check back for more updates a bit later.
Wednesday, February 6, 2013
Wednesday, February 6, 2013
Historic Blizzard Possible on Friday into Saturday Morning
A historic blizzard is possible on Friday into Saturday
morning. The control run of the European model just came in and does,
just as I had feared. It phases this storm 6 hours earlier, just as I
have been saying, causing ALL of NJ, NYC, Long Island, and Connecticut to be in
the heaviest area of snow. If, and I repeat if this is correct, it it not
a guarantee, but it is a very real possibility, it would mean we would all see
at least 2 feet of snow. I don't want to alarm anyone, it is always
possible it is wrong, but honestly, I am leaning toward it at the moment.
The main operational run of the European model has been trending toward the
control run of the model for the past two runs now, phasing the two storms
sooner. I will however post below what I said earlier and stick with that
as my official forecast for now, but please keep in mind, this forecast can
change for the better or worse very easily.
The European model continues to phase these two storms quicker, now bringing blizzard conditions to much of our area for late in the day on Friday into early Saturday. There may be a little snow even early in the morning on Friday, but the main effects from the storm look to start around 11am on Friday morning with the heaviest snow occuring on Friday evening and night and into early Saturday morning before ending between 7am and 10am on Saturday morning from west to east. Total accumulations right now appear to be 12-18 inches throughout Northern and Central New Jersey, with the lowest accumulations in Western sections and the highest accumulations in eastern sections. From New York City eastward to Central Long Island, accumulations should be 18-24 inches, and from central Long Island to Boston, accumulations should be 24-30 inches. There is a possibility that the storm could start as rain, especially in eastern and southern sections, but it will change to snow everywhere by evening and this was taken into account in my snowfall totals listed above.
The European model continues to phase these two storms quicker, now bringing blizzard conditions to much of our area for late in the day on Friday into early Saturday. There may be a little snow even early in the morning on Friday, but the main effects from the storm look to start around 11am on Friday morning with the heaviest snow occuring on Friday evening and night and into early Saturday morning before ending between 7am and 10am on Saturday morning from west to east. Total accumulations right now appear to be 12-18 inches throughout Northern and Central New Jersey, with the lowest accumulations in Western sections and the highest accumulations in eastern sections. From New York City eastward to Central Long Island, accumulations should be 18-24 inches, and from central Long Island to Boston, accumulations should be 24-30 inches. There is a possibility that the storm could start as rain, especially in eastern and southern sections, but it will change to snow everywhere by evening and this was taken into account in my snowfall totals listed above.
Wednesday, February 6, 2013
Wednesday, February 6, 2013
Quick Morning Update
The European model continues to phase these two storms
quicker, now bringing blizzard conditions to much of our area for late in the
day on Friday into early Saturday. There may be a little snow even early
in the morning on Friday, but the main effects from the storm look to start
around 11am on Friday morning with the heaviest snow occuring on Friday evening
and night and into early Saturday morning before ending between 7am and 10am on
Saturday morning from west to east. Total accumulations right now appear to be
12-18 inches throughout Northern and Central New Jersey, with the lowest
accumulations in Western sections and the highest accumulations in eastern
sections. From New York City eastward to Central Long Island, accumulations
should be 18-24 inches, and from central Long Island to Boston, accumulations
should be 24-30 inches. There is a possibility that the storm could start
as rain, especially in eastern and southern sections, but it will change to
snow everywhere by evening and this was taken into account in my snowfall
totals listed above. It is still possible this storm could merge together
quicker, which could move our area into the higher amounts. Full update
by around 6:15am.
Tuesday, February 5, 2013
Tuesday, February 5, 2013
Evening Update
The Friday
Nor'easter may truly be something unreal. The questions remain as to what
the impact will be in our specific area. Right now, the best guess is
6-12 inches, but this can be less, or quite a bit more, depending upon the
exact way this storm develops and then the exact track that it takes.
This storm will result from two storms coming together, one from the northern
jet stream dropping down from Canada, and one in the southern jet stream that
just came ashore in the Baja of California in Northern Mexico today. The
southern storm will move across Mexico and then along the Gulf Coast and into
the Southeastern United States on Thursday, when it will start to phase with the
storm dropping down from Canada. These two storms will merge near Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina on Thursday night and then form into a very powerful
Nor'easter on Friday. The exact track that this storm takes will
determine how much snow we get here, and who ends up in the bull's eye of this
potentially monstrous and historic Nor'easter. Right now, it appears that
areas from Eastern Long Island to Maine are in the bull's eye with the
potential for 2-4 feet of snow, with our area being merely sideswiped with only
6-12 inches of snow. If however these two systems fully phase only 6
hours earlier it would mean that the higher snowfall totals would fall further
south and east into our area as well. This is a real possibility.
Of course it is also possible that the storm could phase later and then the
higher totals would be further north and east, although I see that being less
likely than the chances for an earlier phase of the two storms. Then,
looking into next week, it appears there is the chance of a significant
Nor'easter for next Wednesday as well, which could also bring significant snow
to our area. Check back early tomorrow morning for a quick update before
around 5am, and the full daily forecast by around 6:15am. Have a nice evening everyone.
Tuesday, February 5, 2013
Tuesday, February 5, 2013
Tuesday Morning's Weather Discussion
This snow will end this morning, then a little more snow
will develop late this afternoon or early this evening with another dusting to
an inch of accumulation tonight. Then Friday we have to watch for the
possibility of a VERY SIGNIFICANT NOR'EASTER! We may just get
side-swiped by this developing monster Nor'easter, but we will have to keep a
very close on eye on it, because this storm may truly be a monster. Right
now it has New England in the Bull's Eye, but it would only take a slight shift
in how this storm develops for it to also put us in the Bull's Eye. We
also have to watch for a possible snowstorm next week for Valentine's
Day. Check back for updates.
Tuesday, February 5, 2013
Tuesday, February 5, 2013
More Snow This Evening and Tonight, Then Friday....
We will see a little more snow this evening and tonight,
then on Friday a Nor’easter will indeed develop, as I have been talking about
for a few days now. This storm will likely bring us a significant
snowstorm on Friday, and bring areas from just East of New York City into New
England a blizzard. Right now it looks like our area will only be brushed by
the storm as it starts to develop into a powerful Nor'easter for New England,
but it should still bring us a chance of at least a few inches of snow on Friday.
Another significant snowstorm may hit our area around the middle to end of next
week. Full update by around 6:15.
Monday, February 4, 2013
Monday, February 4, 2013
Evening Update
The storm for tonight has strengthened on the models a bit
today and now looks as if it has the potential to drop from a dusting, to up to
an inch or even a bit more than that in some places. The storm for tomorrow
night also appears to have the same potential, for a dusting to an inch of
snowfall, or even slightly more than that in some places. Both of these
storms should end around or just slightly before the early morning rush hours,
so they might produces some difficult early morning travel. As far as the
possible Nor'easter on Friday, the European model continues to produce this
storm for four runs in a row now, so I think it is likely to happen, but none
of the other models are as robust with the storm, so there are still many
questions that need be answered. Even if the storm forms on Thursday
night into Friday, it will still need to be determined whether this storm would
be rain or snow.
Monday, February 4, 2013
Monday, February 4, 2013
Monday Morning's Weather Discussion
We will
continue to see one storm after the other pass through our area over the next
10 days. The first one will be tonight,
bringing some light snow or flurries, which could accumulate to a dusting or so
in some locations. The next one will be
tomorrow night, again bringing some light snow or flurries, which could
accumulate to a dusting to an inch in some locations, then the next storm, may
be late on Thursday night into Friday morning, bringing either rain or
snow. The Friday storm has the potential
to be much stronger than the ones tonight and tomorrow night, as it may form
into a Nor’easter, although this is not yet a certainty. If the Nor’easter does form on Friday, the
track and intensity of the storm will determine whether the precipitation is
rain or snow. After the potential storm
on Friday, things will start to warm up quite a bit as we head into next week,
with highs reaching the low to mid 50’s by Monday, bringing rain with the storm
next Monday. Then yet another storm may
form for next Wednesday, with this storm being either rain or snow depending on
where and how it develops.
Sunday, February 3, 2013
Sunday, February 3, 2013
Sunday's Weather Discussion
Sorry for the delay in forecast today but I was waiting for the latest run of the European model to come out, as it shows a possible Nor’easter now for Friday. The European model is currently the only model showing this, but it has now shown it on the past two runs, so I believe it is correct. Will it be rain or snow though? Right now, it appears to be mostly rain, but it is close. Whether it is rain or snow will depend on exactly where and how it develops and tracks. As I talked about previously, there will now be more energy coming into the country off the Pacific Ocean, and this energy will phase with energy dropping down out of Canada, likely creating a Nor’easter. We will have to wait and see how it all develops. In the mean time, we will have some flurries or a little light snow tomorrow night into Tuesday morning, with a dusting of accumulation possible in some locations. We will then get another weak storm on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, bringing more light snow, possibly accumulating to a dusting to an inch in some locations. Then a storm may form along the Gulf Coast on Thursday and start phasing with a storm dropping down from Canada, resulting in the development of a possible Nor’easter for Friday. This storm has the potential to be quite significant, and can be either rain or snow depending on exactly where and how it develops and tracks. We will then have another storm on Monday, although this one will definitely be rain as warm air surges north ahead of a cold front. Another storm may then develop behind this front for next Wednesday or Thursday (Valentine’s Day) and can be either rain or snow depending on how and where it develops and tracks. This potential storm for next Wednesday or Thursday is the one I started talking about a few days ago.
Friday, February 1, 2013
Friday, February 1, 2013
Evening Update
We are still on target for a dusting to an inch or two of
snow on Sunday and again on Tuesday night, and the Friday storm now looks like
snow too, so add Friday to that list. None of these storms look very big
at the moment though. Right now they just look like nuisance type
storms.
Friday, February 1, 2013
Friday, February 1, 2013
Friday Morning's Weather Discussion
We will
continue to see very unsettled weather as weak storm systems move through our
area every couple of days, bringing a chance of some flurries today and some
light snow on Saturday night and Sunday, and again on Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. On Saturday night and
Sunday, and again on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, we could see
anywhere from a dusting to an inch or two of snow accumulation. Then next Friday there is a possibility of a
bit stronger storm forming near the coast, but that is a long way out, so we
will have to wait and see how that works out.
The models continue to think that things may warm up briefly as we get
into next weekend, with a chance of rain, but again, this is a long way out, so
we will have to see. Happy Friday
everyone!
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