Tuesday, February 12th, 2013, Evening Weather Discussion

Tomorrow night a weak storm system will approach our area, bringing the possibility of a dusting to an inch or two of snow.  The snow should start around 6 or 7pm on Wednesday and end by around midnight.  Then we have to watch for the possibility of a little light snow with a very weak storm system on Friday night.  Then the big question is whether a large and potentially powerful Nor’easter will form next Saturday night into Sunday?  As I said previously many times, the pattern setting up for this weekend is ominous and is like a powder keg just waiting for a spark to set it off.  At this moment in time it is appearing less likely that this storm will form, but the pieces of energy to produce this storm still remain over the open ocean of the Pacific where data sampling is sparse.  In this regard, the National Hurricane Center sent reconnaissance aircraft out over the Pacific Ocean today to gather data for this storm, showing their concerns as well.  See below.  As I stated this morning, I have seen many times when these large storms disappear from the models in this time frame as the systems exit Russia and head out over the Pacific Ocean where there is limited data availability.  Then as the storms cross land in North America, and more data is available for the models, the storms re-appear.  I believe this is what happened for the prior blizzard, which was on the models 10 days to a week out, then dropped for a few days, then re-appeared on the models all of a sudden.  We shall see how this works out.  Right now it appears less likely that this storm will happen, but until all of the pieces of energy necessary to create this storm re-appear over land we need to keep a close eye on the potential.  After this potential storm, I continue to watch for the possibility of a Nor’easter next Friday into Saturday morning.  Again below is the reconnaissance flight plan for today from the National Hurricane Center, and below that is today’s forecast discussion from one of the best meteorologists in the country in the National Weather Service headquarters outside of Washington, D.C., as he describes the ominous set-up over the coming week or so and the potential for a significant East Coast storm this weekend.  Have a nice evening everyone.    

NOUS42 KNHC 121743

REPRPD

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1230 PM EST TUE 12 FEBRUARY 2013

SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)

         VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z FEBRUARY 2013

         WSPOD NUMBER.....12-074

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

    1. FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49

       A. P9/ DROP 7 (45.0N 167.0W)/ 14/0000Z

       B  NOAA9 10WSC TRACK9

       C. 13/2000Z

       D. 15 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK

       E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 14/0600Z

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

    3. REMARK: THE NOAA G-IV WILL FLY TRACK P-23 TODAY AS

       DETAILED IN WSPOD 12-073.

$$

SEF

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

1012 AM EST TUE FEB 12 2013

VALID 12Z FRI FEB 15 2013 - 12Z TUE FEB 19 2013

THE PATTERN IS AN ACTIVE ONE FOR THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES THIS

PERIOD, WITH ENERGY TRAVERSING THE NATION COAST TO COAST. THIS IS

PEAK CLIMATOLOGY FOR WINTER STORMS OVER THE EASTERN STATES, SO ANY

PHASING OF THE SPLIT FLOW COULD RESULT IN A HIGHLY IMPACTFUL

CYCLONE FOR THAT REGION. THERE ARE TWO SYSTEMS FATED ON PHASING

THAT MAY PROVE TO HAVE SUCH IMPACT. THE FIRST WILL BE COMPLEX

CYCLOGENESIS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST DAY 4. THE 00Z/12 GEM GLOBAL

PHASES ENERGY MORE QUICKLY AND AGGRESSIVELY THAN THE OTHER MODELS,

WITH THE 00Z/12 GEFS MEAN IMPRESSIVELY DEVELOPED AS WELL. THE

00Z/12 ECENS MEAN INDICATES MODEST PHASING JUST OFFSHORE, SLIGHTLY

MORE DEVELOPED THAN EITHER THE 00Z/12 DETERMINISTIC ECMWF OR THE

00Z/12 DETERMINISTIC GFS. CHOSE THE MIDDLE GROUND OF THE SKILLFUL

ECENS MEAN FOR THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM--THE BAGGINESS IN ITS

SURFACE PRESSURES OFFSHORE ALLOWING WIGGLE ROOM FOR FURTHER

TRENDING. THE SECOND SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS EXPECTED TO COALESCE

OVER THE GREAT PLAINS LATE DAY 6 INTO DAY 7. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE OF

SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO VIGOROUSLY TAP THE GULF OF MEXICO, WITH

IMPORT FOR BOTH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS WELL AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT

INTO THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW FARTHER NORTH. THE LION'S SHARE OF

ENERGY FEEDING THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE FAR WEST MID

PERIOD IN THE MANNER OF MOST OF THE SHORTWAVES AT THE MEDIUM RANGE

OVER THAT REGION. THESE "INSIDE SLIDERS" PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT

IMPORT OF PACIFIC MOISTURE BY THE NATURE OF THEIR TRAJECTORIES. AS

WITH THE EAST COAST SYSTEM EARLIER IN THE FORECAST, THE ECENS MEAN

APPEARS TO REPRESENT A MIDDLE ROAD AND IS THE MOST COHERENT OF THE

RECENT GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO THE TEMPORAL PROGRESSION OF THE

FLOW.

CISCO