Wednesday, February 13, 2013 Evening Update

Well, the flurries just started flying here and we will get a little bit of snow tonight, not much, maybe a dusting to an inch. The storm is going a bit to our south and the temperatures have been warm the past few days, so the snow will be rather wet and the ground is warm, so whatever snow does fall will melt on contact at the start.  So, do not expect much accumulation.  I actually started talking about this storm back on Saturday, February 2, 11days ago, as that was when I started to see the potential.  In the mean time, the blizzard popped up on the models even before this storm made it here!  That tells you how sometimes things can just pop up without much notice.  Speaking of that, while I do not expect it to occur again, especially on such short notice, we do still need to keep an eye on the potential storm for this weekend.   The chances of that storm being anywhere near as significant as they looked a few days ago are now appearing very small.   In fact, it is entirely possible that this storm will form too far out to sea to affect anyone south of Nova Scotia, Canada.  However, the main pieces to this puzzle have still not made it on shore from the Pacific Ocean, so that still leaves the door open for a surprise.  Right now, the Japanese and British models still produce a significant storm in our area over the weekend, and the American models have definitely trended closer to doing that as well.  In fact, interestingly, the American model is now producing a storm in the exact spot that I expected this storm to develop, right off the NJ coast on Saturday.  However, it still shows as being quite weak and mainly off shore.  The concern that I have is that sometimes this is an indication of where the storm will form, but the model does not yet understand the intensity that the storm will eventually be, as the British model clearly indicates, developing a powerful Nor’easter off the New Jersey coast and taking the effects of it up into New England.  There are several pieces of energy that simply do not seem to be phasing together as the models indicated a couple of days ago when they were producing a massive Nor’easter.  If these pieces do not phase, they would most likely just bring us the chance of some flurries or light snow.  If they were to somehow phase, then we could end up with the solutions of a couple of days ago, although that appears quite unlikely at this moment.  My concern though remains with the fact that the main pieces to this puzzle are still in data sparse areas over the Pacific Ocean and the American model just took a couple of steps towards producing a coastal storm on Saturday.  I am also still watching for the potential of a Nor’easter next Friday.  So, check back for updates.  Below are photos of Hartford, Connecticut that were sent to me courtesy of Dirk Schwertfeger.  Look at all that snow!  Unreal.  Again, below is the first post I made on the storm that is commencing now.  I made this post 11 days ago, it did not turn out to be a big Nor’easter, but we did get one of those in the mean time.  I guess this is not too bad, considering this post was made 11 days ago.  

Saturday, February 2, 2013

Saturday Morning's Weather Discussion

Over the next 10 days, we will continue to see one weak storm after the other pass through our area.  Today the first of the weak storms will approach, brining some light snow and flurries from tonight through tomorrow, with a dusting to an inch or two of accumulation possible in some locations.  The next weak storm will approach on Monday night, again brining a chance of some light snow or flurries for Monday night into Tuesday morning, with a dusting of accumulation possible in some locations.  Another weak storm will approach for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with a dusting to an inch or two of accumulation possible in some locations.  Then another weak storm will approach for Friday, this time brining a chance of rain or snow showers.  It looks as if it will then warm up for next weekend as warm air surges north ahead of cold front that will pass through our area next Monday bringing temperatures possibly into the 50’s, but with rain for next Monday.  The reason that we have not been getting big snowstorms this winter is that much of the energy for the storms is from the northern stream, dropping down from Canada. These storms don’t have much moisture to work with, as they are traveling over land with little source of moisture, but there are now some signs that some storms may also be coming in off the Pacific, and they have the potential to interact with the cold air in place in our region.  The first of these storms may reach our area from the Pacific Ocean around the middle of the month and I am starting to see some signs of the possibility of a large Nor’easter forming around the middle of the month around Valentine’s Day, or sometime between the 13^th and the 17^th.  Let us see how all this works out.  Have a great day everyone!

Posted by The Edge at 8:48 AM