Saturday, September 28th, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion

Well, I have to admit, this developing tropical system off the Southeastern United States has been a difficult one to forecast for the past 10 days or so as the models are struggling with it.  The saga continues this morning as the models have now decided that this storm will not strengthen that much at all and likely won’t make it to Tropical Storm status as it heads in our general direction then gets deflected away from us by a cold front moving in our direction, then eventually makes landfall near Nova Scotia, Canada.  It is now looking as if this storm will have zero effect on our area and little effect on New England as well.  This system was one of the most difficult to produce a forecast on that I have seen in a very long time.  Nothing would surprise me at this point with this storm.  Let’s see what the next model run says this afternoon.  Anyway, moving forward, the cold front will approach on Tuesday, bringing with it only a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm, followed by warmer temperatures, although not as warm as was previously forecast, with highs making it to the mid to upper 70’s on Tuesday, the low 80’s on Wednesday, and the upper 70’s on Thursday.  Then on Friday another cold front will approach, bringing with it showers and thunderstorms, possibly developing on Friday afternoon and especially on Friday night.  Next Saturday through Monday will then remain variably cloudy with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm.   The following week now looks to be much warmer than previously forecast with highs mainly around 70.  This forecast was quite different than previous ones for the next 2 weeks, which could possibly indicate a pattern change.  Let’s see if it holds on the next model run.  The current pattern which has been in place since Spring would likely  lead to some pretty interesting weather as we head toward the end of October, so we will have to see if it holds in place or changes as the current model run is showing.  Check back for updates later today.