Thursday, October 24th, 2013 - Evening Weather Discussion

Well, I made the wrong call this morning with picking the European model.  It did seem like a very realistic possibility that the model had a bad run with the American model maintaining continuity as it did.  Anyway, the European model did indeed have a bad run early this morning and is back to normal with the last run.  That is the one problem with the European model.  While it is on average a much more accurate model than any other model, it does on rare occasion have a bad run, then you have to wait a full 12 hours for the next model run.  The American model does have a lower degree of accuracy on average, but it does run every 6 hours, which allows you tell in half the time if the model had a bad run.  Anyway, moving forward, we will now be back to having a chance of some rain on Wednesday, then a decent Thursday, although cool for the trick or treaters, then a chance of rain on Friday and especially Friday night.  Then another storm may indeed form on Sunday.  The Sunday storm would most likely be rain, but it is actually darn close to being snow, depending on how the storm develops.  Expect rain with it though next Sunday.  Check back in the morning for updates.  By the way, today on the way home I could see snow coming form the clouds, at least 2/3rds of the way to the ground.  I assume some of the higher elevations may have seen a mixture of rain and snow with some of the scattered showers.  We will have an even better chance of seeing a snow flake tomorrow as the atmosphere will be even a bit colder and there will likely also be a bit more moisture in the atmosphere as well.