Thursday, October 24th, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion

There were big changes with the European model overnight and if it is right it will mean that the chance for significant rain for the middle to end of next week is gone.  The American model however disagrees completely and maintains the look from last night.  When a model changes so drastically with one model run it is usually a good idea to use caution, as often it means that something went wrong with that particular model run, and that could be the case this time but at this point there is no way for me to know.  Also, you typically want to use the model that maintains the most consistency, which in this case would be the American model.  On the other hand, the European model has much higher accuracy ratings, making it very difficult for me to go against it.  It is a difficult decision this morning and I will say that I have low confidence with this forecast but I will go with the European model as it is often correct.   However it is not perfect and it could be wrong, so definitely check back for updates this evening.  If the European model is correct it will be relatively nice but cool through next Saturday, with the only chances for rain over the next 10 days being today through Saturday with a chance of a rain or snow shower today and tomorrow and the chance for a rain shower on Saturday.  It would then get quite cold for the middle of next week as lows could drop to the mid to upper 20’s next Wednesday morning.  It would then be nice but cool for Halloween with the temperatures at trick or treat time from the mid 40’s to the low 50’s.  It would then warm up ahead of an approaching storm system with highs reaching the mid 60’s next Friday and the upper 60’s on Saturday.  Then a storm system with an associated cold front would finally make it to our area for next Sunday with a chance of rain.  Then after this storm system moves through, we would have a chance of rain or snow showers the following Monday.  The next storm to watch would then be for around the middle of the following week.  If the American model turns out to be correct we would be looking at a chance for showers next Wednesday with heavy rain for Halloween and a chance at another storm next Sunday which would be rain or snow.  Again, I am siding with the European model, but definitely be sure to check back for updates this evening just in case.