Tuesday, October 21st, 2013 - Evening Weather Discussion

We will have a chance of a shower tomorrow as a cold front approaches then Wednesday a Nor'easter will start to develop well off shore, bringing a chance of a shower in the morning and a chance of a snow shower late in the day.  This will be followed by much cooler temperatures for Thursday and Friday with lows in the low to mid 30's and highs in the low 50's with a chance of a rain or snow shower each day as Lake Effect snow showers will develop and some of them may make it into our area. On Saturday morning the lows may make it into the upper 20's to low 30's with highs again in the low 50's.  There will then be a chance of a shower on Sunday as a weak storm system approaches, followed by nice days on Monday and Tuesday.  Highs will possibly approach 60 degrees on Tuesday as warm air starts to stream into our area ahead of the next storm system that will bring us showers for next Wednesday and then colder temperatures once again for next Thursday and Friday with a chance for snow showers.  We are in a weather pattern where cold temperatures are likely to remain in place the majority of the time and it could in fact get quite cold as we head into early November, however it seems that the main storm systems are currently heading up into the Great Lakes as they approach.  This pattern allows the warm air to surge north in front of any approaching storm systems and then drags the cold air back in behind the storms.  We shall see how long this pattern holds.  It is also interesting how the storms for the past month or so always seem to die out as we getter closer in time to each one.  They start out looking as if they will be something significant in the long range, then as we get closer they turn into almost nothing.  Also, it will be so cold on Wednesday of this week that the rain is likely to fall from the clouds as snow, but change to rain well before reaching the ground as the temperatures will be a bit too warm at most levels of the atmosphere.  This will however change on Wednesday night as the levels of the atmosphere start to cool, and especially on Thursday and Friday, even though the high temperatures may reach the low 50's, the atmosphere will be quite cold at all levels, except for right near the ground.  This may very well allow the snow to reach the ground from any snow showers or at least mix in with any rain on Thursday and Friday.  What will likely happen is that the temperature will be 52 when the sun it out, but the second the clouds start to roll in ahead of the shower, the temperature will drop to 49 or so, then as the precipitation starts the temperature will quickly drop to 46 and it will likely mix with snow, then if it can drop to around 42 or 43 that would likely be cold enough for the snow to reach the ground completely.  You don't have to worry about it sticking though, that won't happen unless it happens late at night when the temperatures are near freezing.