Well, today is the one year anniversary of Superstorm Sandy
and the October snowstorm of 2011.
Luckily this year we are having very, very, quiet weather and we will
continue to have quiet weather for the foreseeable future. Today will be a bit cool, followed by a bit
warmer weather tomorrow with a slight chance of a shower, with more of the same
for Halloween day. Luckily it will be
warm on Halloween day with highs in the low 60’s, and it should remain warm for
Halloween evening with temperatures around 60 degrees at trick or treat
time. Friday morning a cold front will
be approaching our area, bringing a chance of heavy showers and thunderstorms
but it should clear out in the afternoon.
The weekend should then be nice, but cool on Sunday. Next week should then be cool with a chance
of more showers and thunderstorms next Thursday morning as another cold front
approaches our area. It may then get
quite cold behind this front with high temperatures only in the 40’s and
possibly even the 30’s for a day, as we head into the weekend after next, with lows dropping into the 20’s. Below you
will find some posts I made from the archives involving the days leading up to Superstorm
Sandy and the October snowstorm of 2011, you may find them interesting.
Thursday Morning's Weather Discussion - Flash Flooding Still
Possible Tomorrow - 70's to Near 80 Possible Late Next Week - Tropical Storm
Possible After the 10-Day Period
We will see some very
nice weather over the next 10 days, and very mild as well, with the one big
exception of tomorrow, when we will see heavy rain in the morning, making for a
horrible morning commute to work, so plan on it now. As far as the
possibility of flash flooding goes tomorrow, it remains a possibility although
it completely depends upon where the heaviest bands of rain set
up. There is a possibility that the heaviest bands of rain could
miss us to either the east or the west, but it is extremely hard to tell
exactly where these bands will set up. Wherever these bands of heavy
rain set up there will certainly be flash flooding, with 2-4 inches of rain in
a short time in those areas. The areas outside of these heavy bands
are still likely to get 1-2 inches of rain, which will make for terrible
driving conditions tomorrow morning even if there is no flash
flooding. So, stay tuned. I will issue an update on this
situation late this afternoon or early this evening after the afternoon model
runs are available. After this system passes we will have just a
slight chance of showers over the weekend and next Wednesday and Friday, and it
should warm into the 70’s and possibly near 80 for the middle and end of next
week. Interestingly, after this ten-day period is over we could
possibly be looking at a Tropical Storm affecting our region, so stay tuned for
this as well.
Latest European Model for Extended Term
Definitely looks crazy
and is backing up the American model. Has an incredibly strong cold front
approaching our area at the end of the 10-day period, and an approaching
Tropical Storm coming in from the Caribbean Sea. The cold air behind that
cold front is just unreal. I hate to say it, but if these things were to
come together, look out. This is amazingly similar to what happened last
October. The chances of these things coming together again this year has
to be one in a million though. I just gained access to the lower
resolution version of the extended European model out to 15 days, and I can
tell you that it does bring these pieces together and produces an all-out
blizzard for New England around October 31, November 1, with the possibility of
some wrap around snow showers here too. We will have to wait and see, but
I truly can't believe the looks of this cold air that may come down out of
Canada. Basically what is happening is that a strong storm will pull down
ALL of the cold air from Canada, right over us, and at the same time that a
strong low pressure area attacks us from either the Gulf of Mexico or the
Atlantic Ocean. This is similar to what happened last year with the
October storm. I remember the models throwing various solutions together
to produce a major storm, as if they knew a major storm would occur at a
certain time in a certain location, but did not know how the pieces would come
together to produce the storm. We shall see if this is what is happening
again. Stay tuned.
Crazy Winter-Like Pattern May Be Setting Up Just Outside the
10-Day Period
The models continue to
indicate the possibility of a crazy winter-like pattern setting up just outside
the 10-day period, and what makes things interesting is the possibility of a
very strong storm along the Gulf Coast, and extremely cold air for early November
being in place over the Northeast United States. The models currently
show this storm along the Gulf Coast getting quite strong but going due East
and sliding out to sea, with some incredibly cold air in place over our region
for that time of year. If things occurred as the models are currently
showing, it would mean just some dry and sunny, but relatively cold air and
highs probably staying in the upper 40's. The models do however indicate
that there will be several pieces of energy dropping down from Canada that
could merge with this strong storm along the Gulf Coast. If this happened
it could very well bring this storm up the coast and into the cold air. I
will go no further than that at this point, as no model is currently showing this
happen, as the American model is the only one that goes out past 10 days and it
does not show the two systems merging and the European model only goes out to
10 days. The period that we would be talking about here is focused around
November 1-4. Keep in mind that none of this may happen though as models
have a level of accuracy that is extremely low at that distance out into the
future. It is just something fun to watch and talk about at this point.
Friday Morning's Weather Discussion - Lots of Stuff to Talk About
Well, we lucked out
today and the rain will likely not be as bad as had been feared, and although
none of the models was completely correct, the winner in the European vs.
American model goes to the American model this time, and that does not happen
very often. I have noticed however that the American model has been
doing better in the weather pattern that we are currently in, and that is a
good thing. Even though the American model has been doing better,
the European model still maintains a higher accuracy score. Anyway,
another interesting thing of note is that the long-range outlook for the winter
has changed quite a bit and our winter temperatures and precipitation are now
expected to be near normal levels, which is quite a change from the National
Weather Service outlook that came out last month, which was showing above
normal temperatures. Indeed, to me, the pattern that is
developing does appear to have quite a bit of potential, and as we head into
November, we may have to start watching for the possibility of winter-weather
type storms developing. Already on the long-range computer models,
you can start to see how cold it will be just to our north and storms will be
developing along the Gulf Coast. If by any chance those two things
meet in the correct way, we could be looking at some interesting things
starting as soon as early November. We will have to wait and
see. Anyway, for now, it looks as if we lucked out today and the
rain will be heavy at times this morning, but it should not be heavy enough to
cause any real flooding. The main problem will be the timing of the
heavy rain, as it is moving in just in time for the morning commute, so drive
carefully. Other than the heavy rain today, there is really nothing
at all to talk about other than the chance of a shower on Tuesday night and
Wednesday, and then things may actually get quite interesting after this 10-day
period is over. After the 10-day period, it is looking as if a
tropical system may approach Florida and then head up the East
coast. In addition, there will be very cold air not too far away to
our North. I doubt the cold air will be drawn into this system, and
it should remain to our North as the remnants of the Tropical Storm bring rain
into our area for the week after next, but I will keep an eye on it, anyway
something to watch for the week after next.
Saturday Morning's Weather Discussion
We will see some rather
nice weather over the next 10 days, with only a chance of a shower on Tuesday
afternoon and night, and then not again until next weekend. It will
also be relatively mild for this time of year with the high possibly breaking
70 degrees on Thursday, before cooling down next weekend. As for the
long-term forecast beyond 10 days, as can be expected there is huge
uncertainty. The one thing that really becomes noticeable is that the pattern
has tremendous potential to be quite volatile with lots of energy in the lower
latitudes and lots of cold air over Canada. There are many questions
though as to whether these two features meet in our area or remain separate as
we head into November. There have been many signs on the long-range models that
there could be a big storm around the beginning of November, but we will just
have to wait and see. Stay tuned.
Something Big is Likely to Happen Early Next Week - The Question
is What?
The models have been all
over the possibility of something very big happening early next week for
several days now. When there is this much model insistence, it usually
means something big will happen. The models are generally pretty good at
showing when something big is going to happen in a certain time range.
What they are not particularity good at is figuring out exactly what is going
to happen. Each model run that is coming out is now showing something big
early next week, but each model run is showing a different solution. I
have seen everything from big snowstorm, to big hurricane, to big Nor'easter,
but no matter what, they are all big. The latest model run of the
American model does not have a hurricane, as it allows the hurricane to head to
the east and out to sea, but it instead produces a strong Nor-Easter that
brings in excess of 4 inches of rain to our area, followed by some Halloween
snow showers for the middle of next week as it wraps the cold air in behind it
and some moisture lingers as the low pressure area is pulled back to the Great
Lakes. The lower resolution version of the European model continues to
show the hurricane scenario but it also wraps this storm back into the Great
Lakes and manages to produce some snow showers behind the system for the middle
of next week. We will just have wait and see what happens, but it is
appearing highly likely to me that something big will happen early next
week. Stay tuned.
Sunday Morning's Weather Discussion - IS IT EVEN POSSIBLE? - CAN
IT HAPPEN AGAIN? - MODELS DOING UNREAL THINGS IN THE LONG TERM!
Well, I have to admit,
what I am seeing on the models is simply amazing in the long
term. The models at the end of this 10-day period are simply showing
things that I have never seen before. The models are eerily similar to
last year at this time. They are importantly a little different
though in that they do not currently show our area in the bull’s eye as they
did last year at this time. They show us on the fringes of a storm
that has the potential to be historical wherever it hits, and right now it
appears to be New England that will be in the bulls eye for this storm, with us
just on the fringes. This is subject to significant changes as we
are still about 10 days away from the storm, and the level of accuracy with the
models at this range is extremely low, but just like last year, I have been
seeing this potential for several days already on the models. Again,
it seems as if the models know that something significant is going to happen in
the Northeastern United States sometime between October 30 and November 1 but
they can’t agree on the details as to how all this is going to come
together. Interestingly though, even with us being 10 days away from
this storm possibility, the two models that go out that far, the American and
the European model are now starting to agree on some of these
details. Basically, a Tropical Storm is going to be moving westward
through the Caribbean to a point near Cuba or the Bahamas, then start moving
north at the same time that the entire pool of cold air from the North Pole is
displaced southward in our direction by an incredibly strong low-pressure
center that moves into Northern Canada. This storm moving into
Canada will displace the entire pool of cold air over the Arctic down into the
United States and towards us at the same time that the Tropical Storm is
heading North out of the Caribbean and toward us. BOTH the European
and American models are now agreeing on this scenario, which is amazing in
itself, but I have often seen this happen when a large-scale system is going to
affect a certain area. The models then start to diverge on the
details as to how the cold air and the Tropical Storm interact, with the
European model keeping the cold air just to our West over the Western half of
Pennsylvania and preventing it from coming East before the model cuts off as
the high resolution version only goes out to 10 days. It is entirely
possible that this cold air would continue to progress eastward after this, but
it is not certain. What the European model does show is that the
main part of the Tropical Storm may escape to the East, but a very significant
Nor’easter may then develop along the Middle Atlantic coast and this storm
could possibly pull the cold air that is now close by, into it. The lower
resolution version of the European model that goes out to 15 days actually
shows the Tropical Storm being pulled back into New England and producing
tremendous rains, winds and possibly heavy snow to areas further to the West,
but ever so slightly missing us. The American model is much like the
lower resolution version of the European model as it actually brings the cold
air into our region on October 30, then pulls the Tropical Storm in off the
Atlantic Ocean. It then merges it with a piece of energy along the coast and
makes landfall as one of the strongest and deepest low-pressure systems that I
have ever seen, similar to the storm that occurred the day after Christmas a
couple of years ago. The American model produces up to 9 inches of
rain for New England with this storm, with blizzard conditions further to the
West over New York State. In addition, unbelievably, it brings snow even in to
our region, and in significant quantities, starting on October 30 and
continuing until November 1. This is because it pulls the entire pool of air
from the North pole to a position directly over our heads while pulling this
incredibly intense low-pressure area all the way back to the Great Lakes from
the Atlantic Ocean and New England. It is hard to image that
anything even remotely similar to this could happen, especially two years in a
row, but who knows? Right now, I will just leave rain in the
forecast for day 10, but stay tuned.
Important and Highly Interesting/Entertaining/Amazing Forecast
Coming Up This Morning
Working on it now.
Simply amazing and incredible stuff. Climate Change? I don't know,
but what I am seeing is just, well UNREAL AND UNBELIEVABLE! Stay
tuned.
Post - Storm Reflections and Analysis
Yes, somehow I did
manage to forecast yesterday’s storm 2 weeks in advance, no joke. Following
this discussion is the first post that I made on the storm potential back on
the evening of Monday, October 17th, 2 days after I had already recognized the
possibility and spoke about it in private. If you have not already read the
post, please do so, I think you will find it very interesting. It does amaze
and frustrate me when the National Weather Service and local news cannot
predict the storms more than a day in advance, such as they did with this
storm. I will never forget watching the news on Thursday morning, 2 days before
the storm that I knew was about to happen. In addition, watching ALL the New
York news stations fail to mention what was about to happen, and even some of
them saying it would be partly cloudy and 52 on Saturday, or that the snow
would not accumulate, and so on! The fact that these people are actually paid
to produce forecasts like this is simply amazing to me. It is a shame that so
many people have to rely upon them to get their weather information. The
National Weather Service did not do much better, only issuing a Winter Storm
Warning on Friday evening for Northeast New Jersey, bypassing completely
issuing the typical Winter Storm Watch that is issued to give some advanced warning
of the possibility. I had been talking about this possible storm for 11 days
already and had mentioned it every day in my forecast for those 11 days. The
storm knocked out power to 3 million people along the East Coast. The most
number of people ever losing power in the State of Connecticut at one time, and
giving New York City’s Central Park its biggest snowfall total EVER in the
month of October, and giving 19 inches of snow to West Milford, New Jersey. It
was interesting to watch the NBC National evening news have West Milford, NJ
featured on tonight’s national news with their 19-inch total.
Post Storm Reflection - I broke my own record for seeing the potential for a major East Coast Storm, seeing this one 14 days in advance. My previous record was 13 days, which I had done previously several times. My forecast amounts were a general 6-12 inches for most locations, except 3-6 inches in far Eastern sections of Northern New Jersey near the Hudson River, and isolated 12-18 amounts in some locations, and this was amended as the storm was approaching to the fact that some locations, could possibly break through my high total of 12-18 inches into the 18-24 inch range. I specifically mentioned West Milford as one of the locations that would be a candidate to do this, and West Milford did break through this range, managing to accumulate 19 inches, and making the NBC evening national news. One of the other locations that I mentioned was Sparta, NJ, who accumulated 16.8 inches. In addition, Lake Hopatcong measured 17 inches. Most locations did get 6-12 inches, although some locations did get less than the 6-inch minimum, my location included, where I accumulated 5.5 inches. This is not due to the snow not falling in amounts sufficient to produce a minimum of 6 inches, but because the snow was so heavy, it managed to compact the previous snow that had fallen. Here is a snowfall map from the National Weather Service, showing the snowfall totals in our region. In addition,here is a great map from the National Weather Service showing snowfall totals throughout the entire Northeast from the storm. I am happy with my forecast. It was not perfect by any means, but about as close as you are ever going to get. I tried to tell people the potential severity of this storm as I saw it. I think I did a good job of this. Overall, I feel good with the forecast that I made and I hope you do as well. If you feel I did a good job, please tell your friends about my blog. I am not making money from this even though there are ads running on it. The ads just help toward offsetting some of the expenses of obtaining the data to make these forecasts possible for you, although they do not offset all my costs, they do help. Again, if you have not already read my first post on this storm, made on the evening of October 17th, 12 days before the storm, please read it and share it with your friends. I think you will find it interesting. Thank you and have a nice evening. The post I made on the evening of October 17th about this storm potential is below.
First Snowstorm for Northwest NJ next Friday the 28th?
I have not mentioned it yet but for the past three days now the medium-range American model has been noticing the possibility of the first snowstorm for Northwest New Jersey for next Friday the 28th. I wanted to wait to see if a pattern was developing because it is a long way out, now 11 days away, but after the latest run of the Medium-Range American model that just came out, I can no longer hold back. The American model goes out to 16 days and since Saturday (about day 13), it has at one time or other on various model runs produced a Nor’easter for our area. What I look for with situations like this, so far in advance of a storm, is a pattern of behavior by the model. What intrigues me is that it is producing a storm in nearly the exact same location at about the same time on different model runs and we continue to get closer in time to the storm. I have absolutely seen the medium-range American model notice the potential for a large Nor’easter along the East Coast as far out as 13 days on many occasions before. Does it mean it will happen? Absolutely not. It can absolutely be a figment of the model’s imagination. I have seen far more computer generated snowstorms that do not happen at this time range than do, but again, for the previously mentioned reasons, I am now intrigued by this possibility and wanted to mention it to you. The European model is a far superior model in the shorter range, but it only goes out to 10 days in advance so it has been of little use so far, however it should be noted that on the latest run it does now show the potential for a strong Nor’easter along the East Coast next Thursday. The European model run however does not bring the cold air in fast enough and makes it just a heavy rain event for the East Coast. The American model brings a cold front through here on Wednesday of next week and much colder air starting next Thursday, and likely, cold enough for snow in Northwest New Jersey next Friday as the storm starts to intensify near the Delmarva Peninsula (the peninsula where Delaware, Maryland and Virginia all meet). The high temperature would likely only be in the 30’s in Northwest New Jersey with snow next Friday if the American model is correct, and temperatures dropping into the 20’s next Friday night the 28th. Snow showers and flurries would occur all weekend long on the 29th and 30th as well with strong winds and highs only in the 30’s all weekend as the storm intensifies and stalls over New England. Keep in mind that this could all be a figment of the American model’s imagination. On the other hand, it could all become a reality. Only time will tell, and if by any chance it does happen, you can say you heard it here first.
Posted by The Edge at 7:03 PM
Post Storm Reflection - I broke my own record for seeing the potential for a major East Coast Storm, seeing this one 14 days in advance. My previous record was 13 days, which I had done previously several times. My forecast amounts were a general 6-12 inches for most locations, except 3-6 inches in far Eastern sections of Northern New Jersey near the Hudson River, and isolated 12-18 amounts in some locations, and this was amended as the storm was approaching to the fact that some locations, could possibly break through my high total of 12-18 inches into the 18-24 inch range. I specifically mentioned West Milford as one of the locations that would be a candidate to do this, and West Milford did break through this range, managing to accumulate 19 inches, and making the NBC evening national news. One of the other locations that I mentioned was Sparta, NJ, who accumulated 16.8 inches. In addition, Lake Hopatcong measured 17 inches. Most locations did get 6-12 inches, although some locations did get less than the 6-inch minimum, my location included, where I accumulated 5.5 inches. This is not due to the snow not falling in amounts sufficient to produce a minimum of 6 inches, but because the snow was so heavy, it managed to compact the previous snow that had fallen. Here is a snowfall map from the National Weather Service, showing the snowfall totals in our region. In addition,here is a great map from the National Weather Service showing snowfall totals throughout the entire Northeast from the storm. I am happy with my forecast. It was not perfect by any means, but about as close as you are ever going to get. I tried to tell people the potential severity of this storm as I saw it. I think I did a good job of this. Overall, I feel good with the forecast that I made and I hope you do as well. If you feel I did a good job, please tell your friends about my blog. I am not making money from this even though there are ads running on it. The ads just help toward offsetting some of the expenses of obtaining the data to make these forecasts possible for you, although they do not offset all my costs, they do help. Again, if you have not already read my first post on this storm, made on the evening of October 17th, 12 days before the storm, please read it and share it with your friends. I think you will find it interesting. Thank you and have a nice evening. The post I made on the evening of October 17th about this storm potential is below.
First Snowstorm for Northwest NJ next Friday the 28th?
I have not mentioned it yet but for the past three days now the medium-range American model has been noticing the possibility of the first snowstorm for Northwest New Jersey for next Friday the 28th. I wanted to wait to see if a pattern was developing because it is a long way out, now 11 days away, but after the latest run of the Medium-Range American model that just came out, I can no longer hold back. The American model goes out to 16 days and since Saturday (about day 13), it has at one time or other on various model runs produced a Nor’easter for our area. What I look for with situations like this, so far in advance of a storm, is a pattern of behavior by the model. What intrigues me is that it is producing a storm in nearly the exact same location at about the same time on different model runs and we continue to get closer in time to the storm. I have absolutely seen the medium-range American model notice the potential for a large Nor’easter along the East Coast as far out as 13 days on many occasions before. Does it mean it will happen? Absolutely not. It can absolutely be a figment of the model’s imagination. I have seen far more computer generated snowstorms that do not happen at this time range than do, but again, for the previously mentioned reasons, I am now intrigued by this possibility and wanted to mention it to you. The European model is a far superior model in the shorter range, but it only goes out to 10 days in advance so it has been of little use so far, however it should be noted that on the latest run it does now show the potential for a strong Nor’easter along the East Coast next Thursday. The European model run however does not bring the cold air in fast enough and makes it just a heavy rain event for the East Coast. The American model brings a cold front through here on Wednesday of next week and much colder air starting next Thursday, and likely, cold enough for snow in Northwest New Jersey next Friday as the storm starts to intensify near the Delmarva Peninsula (the peninsula where Delaware, Maryland and Virginia all meet). The high temperature would likely only be in the 30’s in Northwest New Jersey with snow next Friday if the American model is correct, and temperatures dropping into the 20’s next Friday night the 28th. Snow showers and flurries would occur all weekend long on the 29th and 30th as well with strong winds and highs only in the 30’s all weekend as the storm intensifies and stalls over New England. Keep in mind that this could all be a figment of the American model’s imagination. On the other hand, it could all become a reality. Only time will tell, and if by any chance it does happen, you can say you heard it here first.
Posted by The Edge at 7:03 PM
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