Saturday, November 23, 2013

Afternoon European Model Update

The afternoon run of the European model holds firm with bringing one intensifying low north along the East Coast on Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing for my forecast from this morning to remain a good one.  It still starts the precipitation on Tuesday afternoon and evening as light snow, sleet, freezing rain, or rain, changing to rain at night.  The one relatively significant change necessary to the forecast will be that the rain is now forecast by the model to continue through the day on Wednesday before possibly changing back to a little light snow or flurries at night on Wednesday into early on Thanksgiving morning, although only a dusting of accumulation would be expected, if any.  I can only assume at this point that the American model is simply wrong.  If it is really this wrong though, with the main operational run of the American model showing a storm that misses us completely out to sea with 4 days to go, while the European model produces an intense Nor'easter that tracks right over our heads, then this is just really an embarrassment for our country.  Our model is the only one to do this.  You almost hope it is right, because it is hard to believe that it can really be this bad, and if it truly is, well, it is just embarrassing.

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