American Model

The evening run of the American model agrees with its ensemble members again, producing a powerful Nor'easter commencing around 5-6 pm on Tuesday evening and ending around 2-3 pm on Wednesday afternoon.  It has the precipitation starting as snow across all of Northern New Jersey, then mixing with and changing to sleet or rain across all of Northern New Jersey.  The model is currently showing the possibility of Northeastern New Jersey turning over completely to rain overnight, but there does appear to be a cold layer that may end up being below freezing and could cause the precipitation to fall as sleet.  This is an even bigger concern across Northwestern New Jersey, as this model run indicates some snow at the start, with sleet for the majority of the storm.  It will likely change back to light snow or flurries everywhere before it finally ends on Wednesday afternoon or evening according to the model.  One thing I will continue to say though is that if the storm takes the track the models are currently showing, it is very difficult for me to believe this will be a rain storm and not a snow storm.  The track is perfect and with a storm this strong I would believe it would pull the cold air into it, but we will just have to wait and see.   More updates shortly after I see the European and American ensemble means, which is even more interesting.