Friday, November 22, 2013

Quick Update

The new American model run is coming in now.  I will have an update shortly on this run, however the previous run was again laughable.  The main operational run of the American model on its previous run had the storm so far off shore that it merely brushed us with some snow but kept 99% of the precipitation off shore. Meanwhile every single other model and every ensemble member of the American model itself has a major Nor'easter, albeit with a rather warm look to them that would keep snow amounts very limited but would give us some much needed rain.  I will update again shortly after I see the next run of the American model, and its ensemble members.  Also the European model ensemble members will come out in about an hour and that will be the most interesting of all.  One thing I am noticing is that most of the American model ensemble members produce a very strong Nor'easter.  So this is getting interesting.  All options remain on the table. Stay tuned for several updates shortly.  If they can't fix our American model soon they might as well retire it.  It is pretty much useless, yet most forecasters at the National Weather Service and on television rely on it almost entirely to produce their forecasts.

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