Couple of Things I Want to Say

One thing is that the models often do very strange things in the 3-6 day range.  I have MANY times seen the models lose storms in this range that they had from 10 days to 7 days out such as this one.  I have many theories as to why this would be but the most likely one that I can come up with is that there is MUCH more relevant data available for the models as these storms are over land and up till 7 days out much of this energy is likely over land in Russia.  Often then this disturbance will move out over the Pacific Ocean and the only way you gather the data is through satellite, or when an airplane or ship happens to go through it.  Obviously there is then less data and this lack of data can cause the model to lose the pieces necessary to see the storm being close to the coast.  I have seen this so many times that it is just unreal.  So, honestly, please keep in mind before the afternoon models start coming in, I fully anticipate and EXPECT that the models will lose the storm out to sea, and it is possible that this could go on for at least a couple of days until the model picks it back up when the disturbance finally comes back on shore in Alaska or the West Coast.  So, don't expect this forecast to get much easier, in fact it may very well get MORE DIFFICULT over the next couple of days because we could very well be dealing with NO model showing the storm.  I have just seen this too many times, so just expect that the models will lose the storm starting with this model run and then we will just have to continue to watch.  That is what makes weather forecasting so difficult.  As you can tell by reading all this stuff, there are lots of complications and MANY things to look at when attempting to make a forecast.  Let's see what happens.  Of course I HOPE that the European model just continues to show it, as that would make the forecast much easier, but then of course if it does lose it, I won't be sold until a few days from now that it is not coming.  Also, my son and I are going to be spending some quality time together this afternoon at the mall, so my posting will be limited started shortly and continuing until this evening.  I WILL post but they will be brief without much detail.