Friday, November 8th, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion

So, here we go again!  What will it be, sunny and a beautiful, but cold day next Thursday, or a blizzard with high winds and 1-2 feet of snow?  That is the question that we wake up to this morning.  I have been outlining the possibilities since my morning post on Tuesday when the European model first came out with the crazy solution that made me do a quadruple take when I woke up that morning.  It looked crazy and whacked out at the time, and it still does!  Well, that says something for consistency.  The question is whether it is being consistently right or wrong?  That is the BIG question.  There is absolutely no way to be certain as to whether it is right or wrong.  We are trying to predict the future here and that is not easy to do.  What I go on in cases like this are the following:  what has the model been showing?  What is the track record of the model?  What is its track record most recently?  What does the pattern favor?  What has happened in the past in similar situations?  The first question is answered by saying to look at my post from Tuesday morning.  Click here to read this post.  It was clear to me when I woke up, after doing a quadruple take at what the model was portraying, that it was one crazy solution.  Well, it was.  But the model is continuing to produce crazy solutions.  That is one point for consistency.  The answer to the next question is that the models have similar accuracy levels at 10 days out when that first crazy model came in on Tuesday morning, but we are now 7 days away from the storm in model time and it still shows a similar solution.  At 7 days out is exactly when the European model really starts pulling away from the pack as far as accuracy statistics go.  That is another point for the European model.  The recent track record for the European model has been that it was the first to see this potential back on Tuesday morning, three days ago, then lost it for a day, then it brought it back and has had a significant storm for us now for the last three runs of the model, with a track that really did not differ that much at all, just a couple of hundred miles in either direction.  That is another point for the European model.  The next question is what does the pattern favor?  It does not favor anything like this at all, so subtract a point here.  However, I will caution on this one that the pattern was not favorable for anything like this with most of the other major storms we had either that I can remember.  Monster storms like Sandy and the Boxing Day storm do not usually happen in a favorable pattern.  That is why they are so rare.  There really is no favorable pattern for insane situations such as this.   I remember so many meteorologists saying a week before Sandy and the Boxing Day storm (the blizzard that brought up to 3 feet of snow three years ago to Northeast New Jersey the day after Christmas) saying the pattern was not favorable and it would not happen.  The models honestly had a tremendously hard time predicting the Boxing Day storm until only 24 hours before it happened.  The models showed that storm a week out, then lost it for a few days and the American model, of all things, was the one to bring it back only 36 hours out, then the European model brought it back with 24 hours to go.  The European model was however the ONLY model to even see the amazing turn that Sandy was going to take until only about 4 days out.  I typically don’t take our American model very seriously until we are about 4 days out and I have done this for years.  No different here.  The last question was what has happened in the past in similar situations?  Well I just talked about this a bit, but to go into further details about Nor'easters, the European model is the only model that is particularly good at seeing the fine details that allow a Nor'easter to come close to shore.  All of the other models have a tendency to see the storm, but for some reason they keep it WAY too far out to sea, just like with Sandy and the Boxing Day storm, and so many other major Nor'easters that I have seen over the years as well.  Another point for the European model.  So, after adding up all the points I would definitely lean toward the European model here heavily.  PLEASE DON’T GET ME WRONG THOUGH!  THIS STORM ABSOLUTELY CAN MISS US OUT TO SEA OR NOT EVEN DEVELOP AT ALL!!!  That is still a VERY real possibility.  With the higher resolution also comes the chance that the model is mishandling some fine detail and the higher resolution can actually magnify that inaccuracy.  However, it is indeed significantly more likely that it is simply reading the data better due to its higher resolution.  Higher resolution in this case means that it breaks the atmospheric analysis down into smaller segments, allowing it to see the atmospheric conditions better, such as when you use a magnifying glass. 

Anyway, as for the forecast:  we will have cold days today and tomorrow, with just a slight chance of a snow shower today and highs in the mid 40’s both days.  It will then warm up a bit on Sunday and Monday ahead of the arctic cold front.  Then on Tuesday morning an arctic cold front will move through our area, dropping the temperatures to the mid 30’s by Tuesday evening and bringing us a chance of some light snow or snow showers.  Then on Wednesday a Nor'easter MAY slowly start to develop along or off the Middle Atlantic Coast bringing us a chance of some light snow or flurries during the day on Wednesday as temperatures remain cold with a high only in the mid 30’s.  Then all the questions come into play as to whether or not this storm will really happen.  The only thing I can say is that it will or it won’t.  Either way it will be cold with a high in the low to mid 30’s.  If the storm does not develop or develops too far out to sea we would actually have a beautifully sunny day on Thursday.  If it does occur as the European model is currently portraying we would have a blizzard with strong winds and 1-2 FEET of snow.  If it does snow, the snow would likely become heavy late on Wednesday or Wednesday night and especially on Thursday morning, prior to coming to an end on Thursday afternoon.  Then Friday would be quite nice but cold with a high in the upper 30’s.  There may then be increasing cloudiness but warming temperatures next Saturday as the next storm system approaches.  That storm system could also be interesting for next week and it could stay around for a while and stall out, but right now it appears to be a rain threat. 

On a side note, if you did not already hear, there was a typhoon that hit the Philippines last night that was one of the strongest storms ever recorded on the planet with maximum sustained winds of 195 mph at one point and wind gusts recorded of 235 mph.  Click here to read the story and click here to view satellite images.  Maybe this is part of the reason for the model insanity?

The European model control run just came in with the storm, but missing us out to sea.  Keep in mind that is still a very real possibility as well.  The only model run at such a high resolution though is the main operational run of the European model mentioned above.  Check back for updates and tell your friends about this blog.  Thank you and have a great day!