Friday, November 22nd, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion

Well, surprise, surprise.  I have already been talking about this storm potential for at least a week, and here we go, off to the races.  Anyway, first, we will have some showers today, followed by cooler weather tomorrow with a chance of a snow shower or flurry in the afternoon or at night.  Sunday will then be cold with a low in the low to mid 20’s and a high only around 30.  Monday morning will be even colder with a low in the mid to upper teens and a high in the low to mid 30’s.  Then all eyes turn to a developing storm along the Central Gulf Coast.  This storm will move northeast and intensify during the day on Tuesday, moving to a position approximately 100 miles off the New Jersey Coast by Wednesday afternoon.  This storm will likely become a potent Nor'easter with strong winds and heavy precipitation.  Again, as always seems to be the case in our area, what form will the precipitation take?  What is amazing to me is how this storm track now looks very similar to what I have been envisioning all along.  While the models had some difficulty for the past few days, they have now come into good agreement on this track.  This track will put Northern New Jersey right on the dividing line between rain and snow, meaning we may be in for a mixture, especially for areas of extreme Northeastern New Jersey along the Hudson River, with areas of Northwest New Jersey along the Pennsylvania border more likely to receive all snow.  However, this track typically would mean a colder scenario than what the models currently indicate.  With an intensifying low pressure system 100 miles off the coast I am a bit surprised that the models do not have an even snowier look than they currently do, but the ocean temperatures are still relatively warm since it is early in the season, so that may be the reason.  My guess would be though that there will be a bit more cold air than what the models are currently indicating, so we really need to keep a very close eye on this situation.  Even still, right now it appears that ALL of our area will see at least a mixture of precipitation, with accumulating snow likely everywhere, and possibly significant snow in many, if not all locations.  We will just have to watch as we get closer in time.  The potential right now, if this is all snow, would be for approximately 6-12 inches of accumulation, with some higher totals possible in the higher elevations.  Keep in mind that a small shift in the track of this storm could mean more rain, or more snow, so check back for updates.  The timing now looks to have been pushed back a bit, making things even worse for the holiday travelers on the busiest travel day of the year.  The precipitation should start on Tuesday night, becoming heavy early on Wednesday with the heaviest of precipitation on Wednesday morning, and continuing lightly through the afternoon and possibly into the early evening.  Then, after this storm passes it will get very cold for Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday with lows reaching the mid to upper teens on Thanksgiving morning and the low to mid teens on Black Friday.  The highs will only be in the upper 20's for both Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday.  Then we will have a chance of snow showers for the weekend followed by the possibility of another Nor'easter, similar to this one, for the middle of the following week, centered on Wednesday, December 4^th.