Saturday, November 23, 2013

Late Night American Model Update

The late night run of the American model finally realized we will be getting a Nor'easter here in only three days.  It has a compromise track between its offshore track of prior runs and the European model's track right over our head, taking the storm to a position approximately 100 miles off the coast of New Jersey by Wednesday afternoon.  This would achieve my forecast from this morning very nicely, with some snow, sleet or freezing rain possible at the beginning of the storm late on Tuesday afternoon and evening, changing to rain, then ending as a bit of snow on Wednesday.   The rain/snow line on this run is right along the New Jersey/Pennsylvania border, with Northeast Pennsylvania and areas to the north of Orange County New York getting 6-12 inches of snow.  My concern now would be that any further shift east with this storm could put us in that area as well, so we need to keep a close eye out for any eastward shift here at all.  There is certainly plenty of cold air, it is simply the track of the storm that will determine what type of precipitation we get. 

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