Monday, November 18th, 2013 - Evening Weather Discussion

The storm for this coming weekend will most likely start as some showers on Friday, followed by rain for Saturday, possibly starting as some snow on Saturday morning just north of the New Jersey border in New York State.  The heavy snow that the European model was producing for the Catskills this morning has been shifted much further north into Canada as warm air moves in on Saturday afternoon.  Then the cold front will swing through behind this storm on Saturday night, possibly causing the rain to change to a brief period of light snow or flurries on Sunday morning before ending.  Then all eyes turn to a low pressure system that will likely be forming along the Gulf Coast on Tuesday of next week.  This storm may very well turn northeast and head up the East Coast of the United States just in time for the busiest travel day of the year, the day before Thanksgiving (next Wednesday).  The storm will likely commence here next Wednesday afternoon and continue until at least the morning hours of Thanksgiving, and possibly all day.  The big question is what will the exact track of this storm be, and how much cold air will be in place at that time?  At this point I am sticking with all of my prior thoughts and we will just have to wait and see as we get closer in time.  I have been watching this potential for about a week already and I am fairly convinced it will happen.  I am not sure of the exact track just yet, although my gut is telling me that it will take a track to a point about 50 miles or so off the coast of New Jersey on Wednesday night or Thanksgiving morning.  If this were to occur it would mean that we would be on the cold side of the storm, which would indeed mean snow.  Of course I could be wrong and if it were to take a track inland or over us, it would mean rain or snow changing to rain.  We will just have to wait and see. After this storm passes I am also starting to think we will see another storm the following Sunday or Monday that may very well be much like this one.  So, I believe we may be in an active pattern for the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.