Monday, November 18th, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion

Well, I know many of you were probably wondering why I did not post on the thunderstorm threat for early this morning, and to be honest, I was watching it yesterday as it decimated parts of the Mid-West but I truly believed it would die out as it headed into our area, giving us just some rain.  In addition, I knew it would be passing through at night, when it was the coolest part of the day, plus it did not get very warm yesterday.  It did die out quite a bit, but honestly I was a bit surprised by how much it kept its strength.  I still managed to record a 29mph wind gust at my weather station this morning around 3:30am when I was awaken by its passage.  Anyway, moving forward, it will remain warm until this afternoon before the cold air finally starts moving in behind the front.  The high will reach the upper 50’s to low 60’s early this afternoon before the temperatures start falling.  Then it will be nice but cool for tomorrow through Thursday.  Then on Friday light rain will develop in the afternoon as an arctic front settles in about 10-20 miles north of the New York/New Jersey border.  This will keep Northern New Jersey on the warm side of the front so the light rain will continue overnight on Friday and into Saturday, becoming steady for a time during the early afternoon, prior to ending in the late afternoon.  The European model is apparently going to end up being pretty darn close to correct with the handling of this system as all of the other models had shown this being just another frontal passage like all the others.  The European model however saw that this cold front would run east to west across the Northeastern United States instead of pushing through in a north to south fashion.  This will allow for a storm to form along the front, and right over us.  This will allow for some accumulating snow for areas as close as approximately 20 miles north of the New Jersey border on Friday night and Saturday morning, then it will push just a bit further north during the morning on Saturday, but at that time the snow will become heavy over the Catskills where 6-12 inches of snow may accumulate on Saturday.  Then it will get cold behind this storm for Sunday and Monday with highs only in the low to mid 30’s on Sunday and the lows will reach the upper teens in many locations on Monday morning.  Then on Tuesday a weak storm system may approach, bringing with it a chance of some light rain or light snow.  Then, we really have to watch a storm that may start forming along the Gulf Coast next Tuesday.  This storm has the potential to become quite intense as it moves Northeast along the coast, potentially becoming a potent Nor’easter for the time period from the day before Thanksgiving, through Thanksgiving Day, and possibly into the day after Thanksgiving.  It appears that cold air will be in place in our region at that time, so if the storm does develop and move in our direction it might very well mean a significant snowstorm for the Thanksgiving holiday.  I have been watching this potential for a week already and I am honestly VERY concerned about this potential situation.  Check back for updates.