Monday, November 25th, 2013 - Evening Weather Discussion

OK, so here is the current situation.  The National Weather Service is projecting a high in Northeast New Jersey tomorrow of 39, with no mention of a temperature drop when the precipitation starts and no mention of anything tomorrow other than rain.  For Northwest New Jersey they have a projected high of 38 with a chance of rain, snow, and sleet before 3 pm.  OK, well I am fine with that, but then they say rain after 3 pm with no mention of a temperature drop.  OK, WHAT PLANET ARE THESE PEOPLE ON????  Sure, I guess it is possible that they can be right, but right now for Northwest New Jersey both the American and European models show precipitation falling in Northwest New Jersey at 7 pm tomorrow night with a temperature of 30 degrees.  I ask again, WHAT PLANET ARE THEY ON???  This type of forecast is exactly why I started producing my own forecasts years ago.  OK, granted, the models could magically change overnight and warm up or something, but that is EXTREMELY unlikely.  And, for Northeast New Jersey, the forecast is not as clear cut with the American model not showing the big temperature drop, BUT the European model does show temperatures dropping to 32 in Northeast New Jersey, putting most areas below freezing in Northeast New Jersey after the precipitation starts and at 7 pm.  Basically, what happens on the European model is that the temperature rises to 34 degrees in Northwest New Jersey for the high tomorrow afternoon, and then the temperature quickly drops to 30 degrees after the precipitation starts.  In Northeast New Jersey the European model projects a high of 36 with temperatures dropping to 32 quickly after the precipitation starts. If the European model is right, and most likely it is, we will see some type of frozen or freezing precipitation tomorrow afternoon and evening before it finally changes to rain around 8 or 9 pm.  The precipitation will start around 4 pm tomorrow in most location of Northern New Jersey, probably as light snow, then most likely change to sleet and possibly freezing rain and this will continue until it finally warms up above freezing around 8 or 9 pm in most locations.  The model projects the possibility of a dusting of snow in Northeast New Jersey with an inch possible in Northwest New Jersey, but the bigger concern would be any freezing rain that might fall.  Freezing rain would have the ability to ice up the roads very quickly and it only takes a little freezing rain to cause major problems. The fact that this possibility is not being talked about is atrocious.  I simply don’t understand it and I never will.  These people get paid to produce their forecasts and I just do this as a hobby.  I am concerned about tomorrow evening.  I truly hope I am wrong and it does not happen.  It is not as if I want my forecast to bust, but I really hate driving in this stuff.  It is dangerous.  Let’s hope the European model is wrong.  Anyway, moving forward, we will then have heavy rain for the morning commute on Wednesday that is likely to cause more severe travel problems with flash flooding and ponding on roadways.  On Wednesday we will have morning highs in the low to mid 50’s followed by temperatures dropping to the mid to upper 30’s at night with the rain changing to snow flurries or snow showers that could accumulate to a dusting overnight on Wednesday and into early on Thanksgiving morning.  A white Thanksgiving morning?  Not highly likely, but it is possible.  It will then be quite cold and windy for Thanksgiving Day with a low in the low to mid 20’s on Thanksgiving morning and high only in the upper 20’s, followed by a very cold Black Friday as temperatures drop to the mid to upper teens on Black Friday morning.  Then, where is the talk from the National Weather Service about the possibility of light snow for Saturday night and Sunday morning?  Hmm.  Yes, there is a chance of light snow on Saturday night and Sunday morning as a warm front moves through.  We will also have to watch for the possibility of some rain, ice or snow on Monday morning, and then my Nor'easter may form for next Tuesday.  The Tuesday Nor'easter has the possibility to be significant and can be rain or snow depending on how it develops and the track that it takes.  We are in an active weather pattern finally and now we have to keep a close eye on things.  I am quite concerned about tomorrow late afternoon and evening and I hope the European and American models are wrong right now and I really am wondering why there is so little talk about this.  I guess that is why you all come here though.  Have a nice evening and let us all keep our fingers crossed.