Quick Update

The models are starting to come into agreement on what will apparently turn out to be the pre-Thanksgiving storm.  It now appears that the storm will affect our area from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning of next week with the focus on Tuesday night into early Wednesday.  It is also appearing increasingly likely that it will affect our area in a significant way.  The question now though appears to be whether it will be rain or snow.  The models have shifted the storm a bit closer to the coast, most notably the European model which was 100 miles off shore and keeping our area cold and virtually dry, has now produced a MUCH stronger storm, much as I had anticipated last evening.  It has also more notably shifted the storm to a position along the New Jersey coast early on Wednesday morning which could allow enough warm air to move into our area to allow for rain, with Northern New Jersey sitting right on the dividing line between ran and snow.  Please keep in mind that the models are still outside of their best accuracy range and there is still a high likelihood that the model runs will change, so please check back for updates and my full forecast around 6 am.