Tuesday, November 19th, 2013 - Evening Weather Discussion

This is an exceedingly difficult forecast for next week, and an important one as there is a very real possibility of a significant snowstorm in our area for the day before Thanksgiving or Thanksgiving Day.  First though, we will have nice but cool weather through Thursday.  On Friday we will have increasing cloudiness with a slight chance of a shower as a weak storm system and associated cold front approach our area.  Saturday morning we will have some light rain or showers, followed by clearing in the afternoon. Sunday will then be much cooler with highs only in the low to mid 30’s.  Monday morning we will have lows in the upper teens to low 20’s and a high again only in the low to mid 30’s.  Tuesday we will have a chance of some light snow as a weak storm system approaches our area from the west at the same time that a much stronger storm is forming along the Central Gulf Coast.  This storm along the Gulf Coast will then start to head northeast and up the East Coast of the United States.  The typical questions will then come into play as to what the exact track will be that this storm takes, although at the moment it now appears that an inland track will not happen, so cold air should remain in place.  That leaves us with the question of how close this storm comes to the coast?  Last night I went out on a limb, with virtually no model support at that time.  I said that, “based solely on my gut instinct” I felt the storm would come to a point about 50 miles off the New Jersey Coast.  At this time both the American and European models bring the storm to a point about 100 miles off the New Jersey Coast, although they differ in timing by about 24 hours.  I hope you will forgive me if I end up being off by about 50 miles for the center of low pressure from 8 days out.  If the storm does end up in that location it will then depend upon how much this storm develops and how much moisture it throws back into our area.  The operational run of the European model currently produces very little snow in our area as it does not develop the storm much and it allows most of the moisture to stay off shore.  The operational run of the American model however produces a MUCH stronger storm, allowing for a significant snowstorm in our area.  As I said, the European model is also a day earlier with the snow, focusing more on Tuesday night into Wednesday night and the American model would be for Wednesday night through Thanksgiving Day, ending in the evening.  However, and this is BIG, the ensemble mean of the European model does NOT agree with the operational run at all, and it produces MUCH more precipitation for our area.  Usually when this happens it means that the operational run is wrong and that the operational run will change on future runs.  Of course, there is no way to know for sure which is correct until future runs come out.  BUT, like I said, typically this is a big indicator that the operational run is wrong.  This is tending to make me believe the operational run of the American model.  Also, the ensembles of the European model agree with the timing of the American model.  So, at this moment I would say that there is a very real possibility of a significant snowstorm here starting on Wednesday night before Thanksgiving and going through Thanksgiving Day, ending on Thanksgiving night.  Please keep in mind that this is just an educated guess and there is also a very real possibility that the operational run of the European model will be right and we get nothing, or virtually nothing.  However, my best guess at this particular moment in time would be for a significant snowstorm to occur in our area starting on Wednesday evening and ending on Thanksgiving evening.  Please keep in mind and don’t forget that this is just an educated guess.  I am not making this my official forecast at this point at all.  I am just telling you the way I see things at this moment in time.  That could certainly change tomorrow morning, so be sure to check back for an update.  Have a nice evening.