Saturday, November 30th, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion

The models are finally coming into better agreement with things over the next ten days, in fact, at this particular moment in time the models are in amazingly good agreement with the pattern over the next ten days, looking nearly identical even at day ten.  I can’t even remember the last time I saw the two models look the same ten days out.  In that regard, we will see warmer temperatures for the next week, starting tomorrow afternoon, and going through Saturday at mid-day.  Then the following week will be back to below normal temperatures.  We may see just a touch of some light snow tonight and early tomorrow morning, followed by a slight chance of a bit of light snow or a snow shower on Monday morning.  Then a weak Nor'easter is likely to form on Monday and brush our area with a bit of light rain or light snow on Monday night and Tuesday morning.  The storm is taking a track that would normally favor snow but most of the cold air will have moved out of our area by Monday night and the storm will be so weak that it won’t be able to pull any cold air down from the north.  If the storm were to strengthen a bit quicker it would pull cold air down from the north and we would see a higher likelihood for snow, but with such a weak storm we are more likely to see light rain.  We will just have to wait a bit and see how all this works out.  Then moving forward, a cold front will be approaching from the west late in the week, bringing a chance for showers from Thursday night through Saturday morning.  It will also get quite warm toward the end of next week as warm air surges north ahead of the cold front, with highs likely reaching the mid to upper 50’s on Friday.  Then it will be back to below normal temperatures starting next Sunday.  We will then need to watch as a storm system approaches for Monday, December 9^th.  Both models currently agree that the precipitation would start as snow in the morning, then likely change to sleet and freezing rain, then to rain.  Of course though this storm is still a very long way out and the models will almost definitely change over time, so we need to keep a close eye on this storm.  Then we may very well see another Nor'easter form around Thursday, December 12^th.  So, we are in an active weather pattern and I would suggest that you keep checking back here for the latest updates, especially for the coming Monday night and Tuesday Nor'easter potential.