Sunday, November 17th, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion

An active winter-like weather pattern is apparently about to take hold of our area starting next weekend.  First though a cold front is approaching our area and this cold front will bring with it showers today, followed by a more steady rain tonight into early tomorrow morning.  Things will then clear out tomorrow but it will still be warm prior to the front passing in the afternoon.  Tuesday through Thursday will then be nice but cool.  There will be a chance of a shower on Thursday night as a weak cold front moves through the area.  Friday should then be cool and variably cloudy as the next storm system approaches our area.  There are still many questions that need to be answered for Saturday.  The European model pushes an arctic cold front through our area on Friday and keeps us plenty cold for snow all day next Saturday while the American model does not push the arctic front as far south and allows us to warm just enough to allow for rain.  So, which will it be?  It is just a bit too early to tell.  If the European model shows one more model run early this afternoon showing the front pushing that far south, I will definitely go with it, however if it shows the front just to our north as the American model shows I will go with that.  So, check back for updates throughout the day.  I will post an American model update around 11:30 and a European model update around 1:45 after each model run finishes.  After this storm passes on Saturday it will get very cold as arctic air rushes into our area and takes hold with highs only around freezing on Sunday and Monday of next week and lows likely dropping to the upper teens in many locations on Monday morning.  There will also be a chance of scattered snow showers on both Sunday and Monday.  Then on Tuesday another storm system may approach.  This storm system may develop over the Southeastern United States on Tuesday and slide to the east and likely to the northeast and up the coast on Wednesday.  This potential storm is a very long way out in the future and there are far too many questions that still need to be answered as to how the storm develops and the track that it takes.  If this storm forms, the exact track that it takes will determine whether we get a big rainstorm or a big snowstorm for the day before Thanksgiving.  This storm has the potential to start next Tuesday afternoon and could continue into Thanksgiving morning.  This storm needs to be watched closely as it could cause major problems for travelers across the country on the busiest travel day of the year.