Thursday, November 21st, 2013 - Evening Weather Discussion

Well, I don’t think things are going to be as clear cut as the earlier models from this afternoon had shown.  Things may very well get quite interesting after all based upon the new information I have just seen.  First though, we will have some showers tomorrow, ending in the pre-dawn hours on Saturday.  We will then have a slight chance of a snow shower on Saturday night and Sunday with the low dropping to the upper teens to low 20’s on Sunday morning with the high on Sunday only in the upper 20’s to low 30’s.  The low on Monday morning will then drop to the mid to upper teens with a high in the mid 30’s.  All eyes will then turn to a developing low pressure area along the central Gulf Coast.  This storm will move northeast on Tuesday, intensifying as it moves to a position approximately 50 miles off the New Jersey Coast by Wednesday morning.  The question remains the same that it has all along.  What form will the precipitation take?  This question seemed relatively easy earlier when the mid-day models came out, with the European model showing virtually all rain and the American model out to sea, quite literally.  Now I see the ensemble means of the latest run of the American model and the European model from earlier today that just came out.  They look pretty nasty for us and continue to suggest that this could very well go either way.  In fact the ensemble mean of the American model brings us a significant snowstorm (even though the operational run of the model still shows nothing).  The ensemble mean of the European model actually puts us right on the dividing line between rain and snow with a mixture of rain and snow throughout all of New Jersey.  Honestly, this can still go either way and I will stick with my thoughts from last night with my probabilities exactly.  I will just paste them below again because they still apply.  It is important that you continue to check back for updates again tomorrow morning.  After this storm passes it will get very cold for Thanksgiving Day with lows in the mid to upper teens and highs only in the upper 20’s.  Next Friday morning the lows will drop to the low to mid teens with some upper single digits possible. I am now ready to make my next storm declaration.  I am placing the next storm after this as the following Wednesday, December 4^th.  It is too early to tell what form the precipitation will take from this storm, exactly 2 weeks from now, but at the moment it looks like another storm much like this one.  Please be sure to check back for updates as things are likely to get nasty for the busiest travel day of the year.  Please tell all of your family and friends about this blog.  Thank you.   Again my probabilities from last night for the various possibilities are pasted below. 

I see a 25% chance of this storm completely missing us out to sea.  I see a 25% chance of this storm hitting us but not in a significant way.  I see a 50% chance of this storm forming into a major Nor'easter with significant impact on our area.  If this storm does indeed hit us in a significant way, as I believe it most likely will, I see a 25% chance of the storm being completely rain, a 25% chance of the storm being completely snow, and a 50% chance of the storm being a mixture of rain and snow with between a dusting and 3 inches of snow.  If by any chance the storm does form into a major Nor'easter and is all snow, the implications would be quite substantial on holiday travel.  As you can see, I am putting all options on the table, but now you have all of my current thoughts as I see them.  Truly at this moment anything is possible, but my best guess is that we will have a significant Nor'easter in our area with the focus on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but possibly continuing through the day on Wednesday.