Thursday, November 21st, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion

We will have one more nice day today, then we will have a chance of showers tomorrow as a weak storm system and cold front approach.  The showers will come to an end before sunrise on Saturday morning, and then we will have a chance of a snow shower on Saturday night.  Then winter like temperatures begins on Sunday as the low will drop to the upper teens to low 20’s on Sunday morning and the high will only be in the mid to upper 20’s and we will have a chance of a snow shower in the morning.  Monday we will have a chance of snow shower at night, and then all eyes turn to a developing low pressure area along the central Gulf Coast.  This storm will move northeast during the day on Tuesday and will end up about 100 miles off the New Jersey Coast by Wednesday morning.  With this track, light rain or light snow will develop in the late morning on Tuesday.  The precipitation will increase in intensity during the afternoon and will be heavy at times on Tuesday night, taper to light precipitation, then end early on Wednesday morning.  At the moment it appears that Northern New Jersey will be on the dividing line between rain and snow for this storm.  It does appear that this storm will finally bring us some much needed significant precipitation, but the really big question is how much will be rain and how much will be snow?  Those of you who follow this blog know that I have been talking about this storm for a week already.  The best I can tell you is that it looks likely that our area will receive at least some snow, but we will have to wait and see how much.  The track of the storm will make all the difference.  The most likely areas to receive more snow would be the areas further to the northwest such as Northwest New Jersey and Orange County, New York.  Northeast New Jersey has a higher likelihood of receiving more rain.  However, the main piece of energy for this storm is still out over the open Pacific Ocean and won’t come ashore in Southern California until tomorrow morning, so the models may continue to have a great deal of difficulty with the details until then and there could be significant changes to the models at that time.  Take a look at my post from last evening for further details about my thoughts on this storm with various probabilities.  Keep checking back for the latest information.  This storm could still go either way, or there is even a possibility it could miss us completely, although that looks unlikely.  Also, after the storm passes it will get quite cold for Thanksgiving and beyond, with more chances for some snow next Sunday and again the following Wednesday.