Wednesday, November 20th, 2013 - Evening Weather Discussion

We will see one more nice day tomorrow, followed by a chance of showers on Friday, with showers likely late on Friday night into early on Saturday.  The highs tomorrow and Friday should be in the upper 40’s.  After the weak storm and cold front pass on Saturday morning temperatures will drop with a high on Saturday only in the low 40’s.  There will be a chance of a snow shower late on Saturday night.  Sunday will be much colder with a chance of snow showers in the morning and highs only in the upper 20’s to low 30’s, with temperatures dropping to the low to mid 20’s in the evening.  The low on Monday morning will be in the mid to upper teens and the high on Monday will be only in the low to mid 30’s.  Monday night and early Tuesday morning we will have a chance of a snow shower or flurry.  On Tuesday a low pressure system will be forming along the central Gulf Coast.  This storm will move northeast to a position 50-150 miles off shore of New Jersey by Wednesday morning.  The precipitation will commence on Tuesday afternoon or evening and will continue until at least Wednesday morning, and possibly through the day on Wednesday.  The models are currently putting Northern New Jersey on the dividing line between rain and snow.  It is nearly impossible to tell what will happen at this time.  Let me just give you the possibilities as I currently see them.  I see a 25% chance of this storm completely missing us out to sea.  I see a 25% chance of this storm hitting us but not in a significant way.  I see a 50% chance of this storm forming into a major Nor'easter with significant impact on our area.  If this storm does indeed hit us in a significant way, as I believe it most likely will, I see a 25% chance of the storm being completely rain, a 25% chance of the storm being completely snow, and a 50% chance of the storm being a mixture of rain and snow with between a dusting and 3 inches of snow.  If by any chance the storm does form into a major Nor'easter and is all snow, the implications would be quite substantial on holiday travel.  As you can see, I am putting all options on the table, but now you have all of my current thoughts as I see them.  Truly at this moment anything is possible, but my best guess is that we will have a significant Nor'easter in our area with the focus on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but possibly continuing through the day on Wednesday.  Then it will get very cold for Thanksgiving Day and the day after Thanksgiving with lows in the mid to upper teens and highs only in the mid to upper 20’s.  Then next Sunday we will have a chance of snow showers, followed by another chance for snow next Tuesday.  Please check back for the next update tomorrow morning and tell all your family and friends about the blog.  Thank you, and have a nice evening.