Wednesday, November 20th, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion

It looks as if we will indeed get a pre-Thanksgiving storm, but first it will continue to be nice but cold today and tomorrow with high in the low 40’s today and the mid 40’s tomorrow.  Friday there will be a slight chance of a shower as a cold front approaches and it will be warmer with a high around 50.  Saturday there will be showers in the early morning, followed by clearing and the temperatures will drop by late afternoon.  Sunday will then be cold with a chance of a snow shower in the early morning.  The high on Sunday will only be in the low 30’s.  Monday will then be nice but cold with morning lows in the mid to upper teens and a high in the low 30’s.  Tuesday a storm system will be developing along the Gulf Coast.  This storm will then move northeast up the coast to a point about 50-100 miles off the New Jersey coast.  The exact track that this storm takes will make the difference between rain and snow.  Right now the models have Northern New Jersey exactly on the dividing line between rain and snow.  The track that brings the storm about 50 miles off the coast is apparently just a bit too warm for snow as the ocean temperatures are still relatively warm.  The track about 100 miles off the coast would mean much more in the way of snow for our area and a track about 150 miles off the coast would likely mean all snow.  We will just have to wait and see what the exact track turns out to be.  The best I can tell you is that, at the moment, it looks as if we may get some light precipitation Tuesday as the storm approaches, with the precipitation becoming steady and heavy at night, and continuing into Wednesday morning.  Wednesday afternoon should then start to clear out.  We need to keep a close eye on this storm as it is still far away and the models will definitely change a bit from run to run.  A 50 mile shift in either direction for this storm would mean the difference between a significant snowstorm and rain.  Check back for updates.  After this storm passes the temperatures will drop to mid-winter levels with the low possibly dropping to the low to mid teens for Thanksgiving morning and the high only in the mid 20’s for Thanksgiving Day.  Then we will have to watch for the possibility of more storms that would have the potential to bring us snow as we head into the weekend and the beginning of the following week.