Wednesday, November 27th, 2013 - Morning Weather Discussion

Flash Flood Warnings were posted by the National Weather Service for Northeastern New Jersey at 4 am this morning.  We will have heavy rain this morning, moderate rain this afternoon, changing to slow flurries or snow showers between 3 pm and 6 pm from west to east across Northern New Jersey, morning highs in the low to mid 50’s, dropping to the mid to upper 30’s this afternoon.  Then for Thanksgiving Day and the day after Thanksgiving we will have a chance for Lake Effect snow showers or flurries and it will be quite cold.  On Saturday some warm air will start trying to move back into our area and this may bring Northeast New Jersey some light snow at night and into Sunday morning, possibly accumulating to a dusting.  Then on Monday we will have to watch for the possibility of a Nor’easter developing near the Middle Atlantic Coast.  If this storm does develop, right now it looks as if it could start as some snow early on Monday morning, then change to rain and continue for the rest of the day on Monday and Monday night, and into Tuesday morning.  However there is still much uncertainty as to whether this storm will actually happen and I see three possible scenarios.  The first one is that the storm does not develop, or it develops far out to sea and does not affect us.  The second would be one much as the model is currently showing where the storm develops and affects us, but it remains weak, possibly starting as snow briefly, but then changing to rain.  The third possible scenario would be that the storm develops and rapidly intensifies, pulling cold air into it and allowing for the precipitation to fall as snow.  We need to keep a close eye on this storm, but right now the odds of this storm happening at all remain around 50%.  After this storm passes another storm should approach for Thursday night and Friday with more rain, although this storm could also start as some freezing rain.  Then there may be another Nor’easter forming around Tuesday, December 10^th, and this storm could be rain or snow.  We have entered a very active weather pattern and I suggest you keep a close eye on this blog and tell all of your family and friends about it.  Thank you and have a wonderful day.  Drive safely; the roads are horrible this morning with the flooding.