Wednesday, November 6th, 2013 - Evening Weather Discussion

Well, we MAY have some interesting weather come next week.  But first, tomorrow a cold front will come through here in the late morning, bringing with it some showers and thunderstorms that could be heavy times, followed by clearing in the afternoon and cooler temperatures.  Then it will be quite cool on Friday and Saturday followed by some warming for Sunday.  Then on Monday or Monday night or possibly as late as Tuesday an arctic cold front is likely to move through our area, bringing with it some MUCH colder temperatures.  Just how cold it gets will be dependent upon how everything sets up, but it would suffice to say that highs may not get out of the 30's for at least one day during the middle of next week, and it could be even colder than that depending upon how things set up.  There may be some winter-like weather here next Wednesday and Thursday, again depending upon exactly how this all works out.  The European model is currently holding energy back and this allows the warmer air to move into our area before the storm arrives for next Friday.  The American, Canadian, and Japanese models all have a quicker moving storm affecting us on Wednesday and Thursday with at least some snow.  The latest run of the American model produces an intense Nor'easter that just side swipes us with some light snow or flurries as it remains JUST to our east, hitting Southeastern New England with blizzard like conditions.  The prior run of the model put this over central Pennsylvania to give you an idea.  In other words, it is just to early to tell how this will all work out.  I should have a pretty good idea by the time you wake up tomorrow, so check back for updates tomorrow morning.  This will be an arctic front and the temperatures may drop into the low to mid 20's wherever the snow falls the hardest and back to the west of the storm over Pennsylvania the model shows temperatures in the teens, and dropping into the single digits in West Virginia.  Yes, a possible visit from the polar vortex in November mixed with a possible intense Nor'easter.  Amazing.  What concerns me here is that the European model has the highest degree of accuracy on average of any model, so the fact that all the other models have this Nor'easter for the middle of the week but the European model holds it off till Friday is more than a bit bothersome.  However, the European model does have exactly one bias, and this plays right into it's bias of holding energy back in the west.  And to be fair, even if the European model is currently falling into it's bias, the solution now being portrayed by the American  model is actually quite similar to what the European model first started showing yesterday morning prior to any other model.  So, even if the European model is currently wrong, if this Nor'easter does indeed end up occurring, the European model will still have been the first to show it.  Then again, the other models may be wrongly seeing what the European model saw yesterday and it may just be old news.  Check back in the morning.