A Little More

More stuff starts to slowly roll in from the European ensemble for the next hour or so, with the last being the snowfall output in about an hour.  First though, I must say that with what I am seeing, I am almost certain that future runs will become more snowy with this storm for Thursday into Friday.  The ensemble means of the various models are all developing this low closer to the Delmarva Peninsula which would result in much more snow for us than what the operational runs are showing.  The ensemble means are almost always right when it comes to the track of the storm as they average out 51 members in the case of the European model, as opposed to one operational run of the model. If these ensemble means are correct, and most likely they are, then this would push us up into the 6-12 inch bracket for this storm.  As I said before as well, the Sunday night into Monday storm also looks colder on the ensemble means, but that one is still a bit too far out to be certain of much of anything, so we will have to wait and see.  More shortly when the the snowfall projection from the European model comes out.