Afternoon European Model Update

The afternoon run of the European model holds firm, projecting a general area of 1-4 inches of snow and ice mix form Northern New Jersey from southeast to northwest.  I have to say though that I think these amounts will be cut back quite significantly due to mixing with sleet.  I think that warm air may remain at some levels of the atmosphere to prevent those snowfall totals from happening.  I think it would be safer to go with a general dusting to 2 inches from southeast to northwest.  The concern would be that there could definitely be a significant amount of sleet in some locations, so I would be more concerned about that than the snow.  The model also held firm with the Sunday night into Monday morning storm, starting the snow around 6-7 pm and then changing to sleet and freezing rain, then finally to rain around sunrise on Monday morning.  The model is currently projecting snow and ice accumulations of 3-6 inches for all of Northern New Jersey, without any differences from south to north or east to west.  It would just be a general 3-6 for all of us.  However, I will again cut these amounts back because I think that the sleet will cut into the snowfall amounts, so I would go with a general 1-4 inches.  It will then get very cold with highs only in the 20's Tuesday through Thursday and lows dropping to the single digits in many places on Thursday morning.  Highs will finally make it back to freezing next Friday.  Next Friday the storm that I had been harping about quite a bit for at least a week is now showing back up on the model as a storm along the Southeast Coast, but it keeps the storm safely out to sea.  We will however need to keep an eye on this one for next Friday just in case.  Then another storm will be forming along the Gulf Coast next Sunday and that one is likely to come up the coast and become a Nor'easter.  It is too early to tell though whether it will end up being a rain or snow threat, or a bit of both.