Friday, December 6th, 2013 - Evening Weather Discussion

Well, I already put together a rough forecast earlier today when the European model came out and I just gave my final snowfall projection, so much of this will be a cut and paste of what I said earlier but I will add a bit right now.  First of all, there will be a burst of rain starting right about now and another one after about 10 pm.  I believe the precipitation will start to mix with sleet at some point during the burst of rain and it will change to sleet and start mixing with snow during the second burst after 10 pm.  It should then finally turn to snow by 1-2 am in all locations prior to ending around 4 am.  My best guess for accumulations are Hunterdon, Southern Warren, Somerset, Southeastern Morris, Hudson, Essex, Southern Passaic County, and Eastern Bergen County - a dusting to one inch.  Northern Warren, Southern Sussex, Northwestern Morris, Northern Passaic, extreme Northwestern Bergen County 1-2 inches, and finally Northern Sussex County with 2-3 inches.  Then for the Sunday night into Monday morning storm, the model is now projecting 1-3 inches across our region from southeast to northwest.  It starts the snow around 8 pm on Sunday night and then gradually changes it to sleet and freezing rain and then finally to rain by around 4 - 6 am on Monday morning.  It then looks like the next storm on Tuesday will slide just east of us, possibly just giving us some flurries, then it will get very cold with lows dropping to around 10 degrees on Thursday and Friday mornings, with some areas likely to get into the single digits, and the highs on Thursday and Friday will only be in the low to mid 20's.  Then we will have to watch the next storm that will be approaching our area from the Southeastern United States.  This storm will likely be quite significant and will probably bring us some snow on Saturday afternoon and night, possibly changing to rain next Sunday depending on the track the storm takes. I think we will all wake up to at least a dusting of snow, but let's see what happens.  Have a nice evening everyone.